Competition / Cooperation

In 2005, retail brands thrived via mall-based retail, classic cooperation between competitors. Having a Nordstrom anchor on one end of the mall and a Neiman Marcus anchor on the other end of the mall benefitted Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus, the food court, Sunglasses Hut and Talbots. At Nordstrom, we knew that when Neiman Marcus built a store at one of our locations, our sales increased. Neiman Marcus customers walked across the mall and purchased from us.

The catastrophic outcome of the omnichannel thesis soon followed. When the Nordstrom customer bought online from Nordstrom, there were no ancillary purchases at Neiman Marcus, because the customer didn't have to visit the mall anymore. The absurd silliness of "buy online pickup in store" did not push the customer to the mall - my clients simply pushed the customer to the digital ecosystem and the mall emptied.

When traffic disappeared, the weakest clients, those with pre-tax profit < 5%, those businesses suffered first. They closed locations, which meant even less traffic. As locations closed, the cooperation that once caused businesses to thrive became untenable. Better to protect your p&l than to protect J. Crew.

Eventually (i.e. 2024-2025), a semblance of equilibrium finally existed. The Lemonheaded omnichannel experts moved on to their next pursuit ... AI. I was always amazed at how little these omnichannel experts knew about actual retail and actual customer behavior. They simply could not conceive how encouraging online shopping (which was going to happen no matter what) would destroy in-store mall-based consumerism, even though it was their job to understand this simple outcome. Do you trust these Lemonheads with a fusion of vision, strategy, and AI? 

No. You do not trust them.

What do you think happens when ChatGPT or Shopify or others offer viable ecommerce "cooperation platforms" fueled by AI? It likely only takes a 10% drop in shopping traffic on Google / Facebook for those forms of cooperation to collapse. Just like that, you've got less traffic and you've done nothing to cause less traffic. It'll be like a digital mall collapsing.

We saw catalog brands emptied out by ecommerce.

We saw retail brands emptied out by the omnichannel thesis.

Imagine what happens to traditional ecommerce brands when AI actually takes hold?

It's going to take awhile and hundreds of billions of dollars will be incinerated in the process while we run low on water powering data centers, but a new form of commerce is coming ... and this time, the cooperation-based digital world of marketplaces / Google / Facebook / ecommerce is the one that will likely be transformed. Not eliminated (there are plenty of malls and there are many catalogers still in business), but transformed. Transformation is a difficult process for Lemonheads to deal with.