Top 12 Analysis: Impact of Pricing

One of the analyses I run in a pricing project is measurement of customer response by price point. If inexpensive price point customers are willing to buy expensive price point items in the future, you're in good shape? If not? You need to maintain price integrity.

I'll run logistic regression models (#oldschool) of next year's response within price point bands ... always a fun and informative analysis!

The table shows the increase in rebuy rates ... for instance, if a customer buys from the low price point band, each item purchased there increases your probability of buying in the future regardless of price point band ... but adds the most in low prices and average prices.

Interestingly (in this case) if the customer buys from the highest price point band, the customer is most likely to keep buying in the highest price point band next year, though the purchase does help increase odds of buying in all price point bands.

There are companies I analyze that have all sorts of odd outcomes ... low price point customers that refuse to move up, high price point customers who buy from everything, average price point customers who default back to low price point bands. Regardless, it's important information you need to learn for your brand.

It's one of the Top 12 Analyses you respond to when we work together on a project! You have a few days left to take me up on my Top 12 offer. Contact me now (kevinh@minethatdata.com).

Alternate Facts

Midland Paper thinks you need to read this article (click here). They included the article in a newsletter this week.

Is there a rise in Slow Commerce? I asked one of the AI apps to tell me about Slow Commerce. Surely if it were a trend, AI would know about it, right?

Here's another AI application.

In 2026, there is an abundance of data showing that catalog marketing was harmed deeply by ecommerce, then had the doors blown off of it by the paper/printing industry, who constrained supply, raised prices, and fired my clients ... pushing the marketing channel to the brink unless you have the marketing budget of a Zombie Retailer or Amazon.

If an abundance of facts/data doesn't align with your worldview, it's fashionable to create alternate facts. You see it in politics every day.

Thing is, Midland Paper doesn't need to peddle opinions dressed up as facts. They have clients. They have success stories.

If they think Slow Commerce is a trend, why not show an example? Show people what Trader Joe's is doing - even if you don't directly work with them. They sent me sixteen pages of homespun commerce today.

There's even a crossword puzzle at the back of that thing. Old school.

I realize it's a lot more fun to get on an airplane and meet with the creative folks at a Zombie Retailer ... they're willing to waste tens of thousands of dollars on branding, not expecting a penny of sales in return. Who wouldn't like that kind of business? Of course, maybe that's why they're Zombie Retailers, but that's a story for another day.

For today, no need for alternate facts when reality is delivered from a company like Trader Joes.

Top 12 Analysis: Merchandise Gravity

This one is always a classic ... every one of you manages customers who ultimately gravitate toward specific merchandise categories or exhibit behavior that becomes actionable from a targeting standpoint.

I use what is called a "Factor Analysis" to reduce complicated customer behavior into actionable segments. The computer produces a visualization for me ... the visualization is what so many of you have enjoyed over the past twenty years, making the visualization one of the Top 12 Analyses I perform.

So many fun associations!

Customers buying for the first time lean to one-item orders (duh), which skew to expensive items. Yup.

Customers buying from Merchandise Category 02 tend to buy items below their average historical price point. This brand is discounting within that category, it's something I'd have to discuss with Management to understand if they were liquidating items or ... well ... just to figure out if they had a plan.

As customers become loyal (3rd / 4th / 5th / 6th-9th purchase) they align with new merchandise. Guess what? This one comes up frequently. Give your best customers want they want for crying out loud!!!!

My Top 12 Offer ($12,000 instead of $19,000) is valid for prior clients and blog subscribers through August 15. Contact me (kevinh@minethatdata.com) for details.

Top 12 Analysis: The Most Popular Table I've Ever Created

I started creating this analysis (Class Of Reporting) for clients back in 2012, rolled it out more formally in the 2013-2014 timeframe.

In nearly every project where this table provides enlightening insights, clients talk about the table ... a lot.

It's not all great talk. I shared the table with an Owner about a decade ago. A few weeks later the Chief Merchandising Officer calls me ... "your analysis got me fired". No, the analysis didn't get him fired, he got himself fired because the analysis revealed the fact the merchant was unable to effectively manage a merchandise assortment.

Through the years, the analysis remains relevant and actionable. In 2026, you'd be amazed how few ecommerce brands look at their business this way.

The merchant is failing this brand. New items went from 3,146 three years ago to 2,180 in the past year. This tactic "can" work if new items are more productive. In this case, they're not more productive. New item demand dropped from $14.6 million two years ago to $8.1 million in the past year. Unacceptable.

Look at the price of new items in the past year ... $20.80 vs. $15.23 the year prior. Chaotic management of pricing tiers.

These trends repeat all the time.

These trends get marketers fired all the time. The marketer does nothing wrong (well, the marketer should run this analysis), sales decrease, traffic decreases, and the merchant blames the marketing team for not generating enough traffic. The story has nothing to do with "traffic". It has to do with mismanagement of the merchandise assortment.

When one drills down by category, more truth is revealed.

This is the most popular table in my project work ... by far ... it's not even close. It can be yours, part of the Top 12 Analysis ... with pricing locked in at $12,000 through August 15. Contact me now (kevinh@minethatdata.com) for details.

Top 12 Analysis: Customer Life Cycle

Here's one of the analyses that "some" clients really appreciate. What you see below isn't the full analysis, it's a portion of the table with easy-to-understand metrics.

Every business has a "DNA", a hard-written code that dictates where the brand goes. The brand depicted above possesses the classic "discounting" DNA. It's a lazy, stupid brand (it's from my "Beans: The Internet's Largest Variety Store" study).

As the customer matures, AOV increases from about $42 at a first order to $48 after ten orders. On the surface, this should be a good thing. It's not. We can see that the increase in AOV is manufactured. Look at Average Margin Value (margin dollars per order). We start at $29, loyal customers finish at $31. AOV increases by 14% as the customer becomes more loyal. AMV increases by just 6% as the customer becomes more loyal. The brand (like so many) is creating empty calories ... discounting to get the customer to spend more, not pushing gross margin far enough in the process (and hint - that's what matters).

Look at the percentage of an order that is represented by new merchandise.

• 1st Order = 40%.
• 11th+ Order = 63%.

A first-time buyer wants to purchase what is trusted (or what Google trusts - which is an interesting distinction). A loyal buyer wants to be excited by newness. This should shake you to your core, causing you to re-evaluate everything you do from a marketing standpoint.

Look at the percentage of an order that is represented by full-priced merchandise.

• 1st Order = 79%.
• 11th+ Order = 66%.

We can see that the brand gives away more to loyal buyers, which marketing pundits LOVE to do. Of course, marketing pundits are WRONG, but that's a story for another day.

I have a client who acted upon this information ... they trigger their email campaigns based on the knowledge gained in a Customer Life Cycle analysis. No batch-and-blast for everybody. Just smart merchandising to individual customers.

My offer stands ... act by August 15 and you get my Top 12 Analysis framework for $12,000. Contact me now (kevinh@minethatdata.com).

Top 12 Analysis: The Life Table

Recall that I've collected the twelve analyses that you consistently get the most use out of ... these are the analytics you take action on, they are the analytics that you ask the most questions about on video conferences.

We'll start with the Life Table. The Life Table measures how customers convert from a first purchase to a second purchase ... 2nd to 3rd purchase ... 3rd to 4th purchase ... 4th to 5th purchase.

It can be hard to interpret a nerdy table ... so let's look at a graph that measures when this brand (Beans - The Internet's Only Variety Store) converts a first-time buyer to a second purchase. Tell me what you observe.

Do you see the problem? 

I sure do!

Anytime incremental monthly rebuy rates (i.e. chance of buying in month six given the customer has not purchased in months 0/1/2/3/4/5) dips below 1.0%, the customer is unresponsive/dormant.

When does a first-time buyer become unresponsive?

• Three Months After a First Purchase!

That's unacceptable!

There are two reasons for this ... both can happen at the same time.

1. The brand sells merchandise that is repurchased seasonally, negating timeframes when other brands are able to convert the customer to a second purchase.
2. The marketing team does not implement the right tools to convert the customer to a second purchase (i.e. batch-and-blast campaigns with the same presentation to all customers, poor paid search campaigns, poor organic social efforts).

We can also see that this brand fails to push customers to loyal status. Look at the original table at the top of the post, measuring rebuy rates after a year.

• 1x Buyer:  15.5% Rebuy Rate.
• 2x Buyer:  25.5% Rebuy Rate.
• 3x Buyer:  34.8% Rebuy Rate.
• 4x Buyer:  44.7% Rebuy Rate.

Rebuy rates need to exceed 60% after four purchases.

The Life Table quickly points out problem spots in the customer development process. Is it any wonder this is one of your favorite analyses??

Contact me (kevinh@minethatdata.com) for your own Top 12 Analysis (introductory offer of $12,000 lasts through August 15).

May Your Customers Love Your Brand As Much ...

... as these customers love REI.

How would you measure if your customers "love" you?

If your customers love you but not enough to cover your rent, does brand "love" matter?

If your customers shop your gas station twice a month and a different gas station twice a month, does brand "love" matter if 24 transactions a year net you a ton of profit?

In a project a few years ago, the Executive went off about the fact that I defined a "Loyal Buyer" as one who has at least one twelve-month purchase and at least five life-to-date orders. "You don't know what Loyal is, and you shouldn't go around telling us how to define it. Our customers love us!!"

A tiny piece of your soul just kind of goes into hiding on those pithy arguments that some people like to have. We shouldn't take the definition of "loyal" too seriously, and we shouldn't strive for our customers to "love" us. Instead, we should take care of customers and we should realize the point where our customers generate self-sustaining profit.