The Missing Ecommerce Middle Class, Part 2

This is how the composition of a business changed over eight years. Across the top we have purchase frequency, the rows represent recency.

The 0-12 month file is smaller (numbers represent change vs. eight years ago), but the 0-12 month file with one (1) historical purchase is larger.

The 13-24 month file grew a tiny amount, mostly from 1x buyers who lapsed (did not become 2x buyers after purchasing for the first time).

The 25-36 month file grew, mostly from 1x buyers lapsing for 2+ years plus 2x and 3x-5x buyers not repurchasing thereby lapsing.

Notice how middle-class buyers shrunk, but in this case loyal buyers (6x+) shrunk even more. This happens when the middle class shrinks, resulting in fewer customers migrating from the middle class to loyal status.

You've heard me repeatedly ask you to work hard to convert first-time buyers to a second purchase (quickly). This is why. Our businesses are shifting, away from loyal buyers (in spite of every possible loyalty confection known to mankind applied to best customers over the past decade). Our businesses are shifting to prospects who have a need at a point in time ... we meet that need, then the customer moves on. Quick ... you recently purchased athletic wear on Amazon, what was the name of the brand you bought, and why didn't you go directly to that brand to buy from them?

I wouldn't have shared this finding with you (twice) this week unless it is something I repeatedly run across, something that I repeatedly observe causing harm. Do not wait until the customer is lost (beyond 13-15 months of recency) to do something, ok?