When you increase prices (typically by discontinuing a product line and introducing a new/comparable line at a higher price), there are several things that can happen.
- Nothing. This is the hope. You essentially increase prices and customers don't care. It's the kind of thing Apple gets away with.
- Fewer Items per Order. This is the most common outcome. Prices increase from $20 to $25, customers in-kind decrease items per order from 2.5 to 2.0. Nothing has been accomplished with the notable exception of fewer items going through your distribution center.
- Fewer Orders per Buyer: Happens less frequently than (2) above but it still happens. Some of your existing customers just say "no". AOV hawks will quickly point out that there's nothing wrong with AOV, and they're right, AOV often increases in these circumstances. And yet? Business is just "off" a few percentage points ... because customers are not buying as often.
- Lower Repurchase Rate: Sort of a byproduct of Fewer Orders per Buyer, but more significant because some customers just say "no mas" and go find something cheaper on Amazon. Once you start trading in the dark arts of lower repurchase rates, all sorts of lousy outcomes transpire. Your buyer file decreases, you have to "make budget" so you acquire more new customers at ever-more-expensive rates to make up the difference harming the p&l in the process. This is a common scenario.
- Fewer New/Reactivated Buyers: The counterpart to (4) above. (4) is a measure of what your existing customers think, (5) is a measure of what "the market" thinks about your pricing. It is common to see a disconnect here ... stable repurchase rates among existing buyers but a 20% drop in new/reactivated buyers. If your annual rebuy rate is 30%, the market dictates what you do. If your annual rebuy rate is 70%, you dictate what you do.
(4) and (5) result in declining customer counts. Review your prices post-COVID and correlate average price per item purchased with rebuy rates and with new/reactivated buyers.
Does the analysis reflect any warning signs?
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