The Contrast

On the one hand, a print-centric vendor wrote on Thursday about a webinar discussing the myriad ways that print is beneficial.

On the other hand, my wife was participating in a community-based video chat with 80-100 people from all walks of life. During the three hour event, one of the women on the video chat asked ChatGPT how to solve a problem that the community was having. These women were primarily age 50-80.

All around us are Lemonheads ... authoring nonsense-based thought leadership about AI or trying to pull us back to the late 1980s by demanding we send high-quality paper to customers.

You, however, are a smart practitioner. You're ready for the transition that is coming. You're already participating in it. You see how Community and AI work together ... of course you see it ... if a video conference with a hundred women age 50-80 see it you'll see it too!

A Preview of Things to Come

This might already be happening at some level.

History:  When e-commerce took over from catalog marketing, new "channels" emerged. Over the course of fifteen years, money that would have been spent in the list industry and/or catalog co-ops evaporated, migrating over to search and social and display and affiliates and then to Amazon ... etc. Now, money went in those areas because that's where humans went. A combination of eyeballs moving elsewhere coupled with catalog co-ops automating human tasks resulted in the death of the catalog list industry (around 2005-2007ish). The continued migration of eyeballs to a search/mobile/social world caused the eventual (and predictable) collapse of the catalog co-op industry.

See how that all played out? Fewer eyeballs caused reduced performance. Any dollars left in the catalog ecosystem went to the co-ops (automated) instead of the list industry (humans), then the dollars left the co-op ecosystem as too few valuable eyeballs were captured by the co-ops. 

Future:  A person told me today that they perform most of their searches on ChatGPT. "It's just easier, I'm leaving Google". Here in the United States, what happens when thirty million people use Google less and AI more? You're probably saying "what do I care?" You should care. When those eyeballs leave Google, those eyeballs aren't on Google looking at your Product Listing Ad, are they? This should create a fun dynamic, because there will be less eyeballs to buy your products, which means that the Lemonheads will PAY MORE for the clicks that remain, rendering search marketing less profitable. Search will collapse in the manner that the catalog list industry collapsed. It won't die ... the catalog co-op community was a logical evolution of the list community. But it will become a less viable avenue for you to find new customers. It's relevance will collapse. And you'll be desperate for new customers if you are a Lemonhead.

I know, you're thinking that Google will solve their problem with AI. They might. They might also experience the rusty irrelevance that all incumbents experience when trying to bolt their solution onto a legacy solution. Ask Macy's how omnichannel strategy worked out for them.

This is why I'm going to spend considerable time talking about new customers, talking about scoring new customers. We need a process, a framework, to understand how coming changes are going to impact the businesses we manage. Everything that is coming in the next five years needs to be understood. You are not some stupid Lemonhead who "Embraces AI" or offers thought leadership on the fusion of "Search, Commerce, and AI". You are a practitioner who understands business. That's what I'm going to help you do. I'm going to help you understand how the new customers you bring into your business impact your future.

P.S.: From a ChatGPT question ... "who uses the term Lemonhead"?

Scoring New Customers

News today that OpenAI is going to integrate discovery and payments within a chatbot should excite you and terrify you (click here).

I think carefully and often about what my role needs to be over the next five years. That role becomes clearer by the day. 

• I have to be the person who tells you if the new customers you acquire via technology are acceptable or not.
• I have to be the person who understands the intersection of technology and the merchandise you offer. In other words, I don't have to understand the technology ... I have to demonstrate to you how technology is impacting your business. When a new customer purchases some obscure item that is recommended by technology, I have to show you how your business is impacted going forward.

In upcoming posts, I'll talk about Scoring New Customers. I'll have to come up with a better name ... maybe you have one for me? Regardless, this intersection of technology/merchandise/channels is going to play out in a familiar manner, and somebody needs to be there to show you how every customer you acquire, every day, will change the future trajectory of your business. When I say this is going to play out in a familiar manner, I have the receipts ... when e-commerce took over from old-school catalog marketing, the old-school pundits told you to be "omnichannel", to do everything ... which meant you kept doing the old-school stuff that old-school pundits needed you to keep doing.

• How do you think old-school e-commerce professionals are going to respond to integrated discovery/payments within AI?

I see this gaping hole in the marketplace where "somebody" is going to have to explain the impact of AI-style decisions on your customer file. Example ... a business used AI to reactivate customers, but the reactivated customers were "different" than the typical customer. This changes what the brand needs to feature to these customers going forward.

For me, this is going to be SO MUCH FUN!

For you, you'll have to have this knowledge, you'll have to be smarter than the Lemonheads who blindly adhere to binding AI to the old-school e-commerce platform.

Over on LinkedIn

I shared information about "when" a first-time buyer repurchases. As you know from reading this stuff for the past twenty years, the first three months after a first purchase mean everything. In fact, for most of you, 95% of your marketing efforts should be focused on new customers and then converting the first-time buyer to a second purchase within three months of the first purchase.

Here's the LinkedIn link ... at 5,700 views as of this writing.

P.S.:  The comments on that post are a fun romp, allowing one to evaluate the difference between practitioners and thought leaders. One of the comments is a real peach!

Try A Test!

Why don't you put together the two themes I've discussed most often this year for a September - October test? What stops you from doing this? (seriously, be honest, what stops you from trying this?)

Sports / Business Philosophy

I came across this quote in the book Bill Walsh (49ers coach in the 80s) wrote sometime back ... I have a copy out in the Casita, and there aren't many copies available. This quote was featured on Bluesky from a football coach. I circled the quote in orange.

"You start first with a structural format and basic philosophy ..."

What is your "structural format" and "basic philosophy"?

I can outline mine ... quickly.

• There is nothing more important than what you sell ... the only reason a customer buys from you is because you sell something that the customer needs or wants.
• Unless your annual repurchase rate is sixty percent or greater, the single most important marketing function you must perform is a non-stop all-consuming focus on customer acquisition.
• Instead of focusing on customer loyalty, focus on converting a first-time buyer to a second purchase ... quickly. By doing so today, you will have more loyal buyers tomorrow.

The most successful companies I work with excel at all three endeavors outlined above.

What is your "structural format" and "basic philosophy"?

September New Customers

You've got six(ish) weeks to get ready for the best month to acquire new customers ... September! Nearly every project I work on for brands with a strong Christmas Season indicate that September is the best month to acquire new customers. Learn more by watching this brief video (click here).