Let's look at a problem for catalog advocates.
Matchbacks will give you a misleading outcome. You need mail/holdout tests and you need frequency testing to get to a "better" view of profitability. For instance, you might have a customer who receives 10 catalogs and spends $30.00 across the 10 catalogs. Each catalog would look "profitable" on the surface. When frequency testing is applied to the situation, 10 catalogs isn't best ... it's around 6.
The most profitable outcome is six catalogs. When it comes to retaining most customers, the catalog is not as optimal as it could be ... send six catalogs to this customer instead of ten and take the $3.60 per customer you save and spend it digitally ... something so many catalog professionals are loathe to do.
Here's another thing that so many catalog professionals are loathe to do. This customer received 10 catalogs and it a bit more than twice as productive as the customer above is. What is the optimal number of catalogs for this customer?
It's not ten, is it?
It's 25!
When I share this with catalog professionals, they ... don't ... like ... this ... outcome.
- "We're not ever going to have 25 in-home dates, so this outcome doesn't have any meaning for us. Please recommend an actionable strategy."
- They won't mail a customer fewer times even though profit would increase.
- They won't mail a loyal customer more times even though profit would increase.
- They won't change.


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