That Pesky Three Month Timeframe

In your Customer Development work, job one is to get the first time buyer to purchase again ... quickly. You already know this if you've been following along for the past six months, but an example is prudent at this juncture of the discussion: 

A month after a first purchase and the newbie has an 8.7% chance of buying again.

If the customer does not repurchase, we move to two months of recency, where the customer has a 5.2% chance of buying again.

If the customer does not repurchase, we move to three months of recency, where the customer has a 3.1% chance of buying again.

The customer becomes increasingly unlikely to buy again thereafter ... save for seasonal increases at 12/24/36 months following a first purchase. But even then, the odds of the customer buying again are slim.

In other words, that pesky three month timeframe following a first order becomes the most important marketing tactic to focus on. Nothing else compares. If you want to have a successful business long-term, one where you cater to loyal buyers, you'll have to spend a disproportionate amount of marketing effort focusing on first-time buyers within the past three months.

P.S.:  This is where the questions start to flow in. What is the most common question?

• Show me examples of Welcome Programs that work.

It's not even a question, it's honestly a command.

The companies that are best at this use merchandise personalization, and they increase conversion rates to this audience to the magnitude of 10% to 50%. 

I'm not, however, going to share specific examples with you ... would you want me sharing your marketing secrets with all readers? No? Ok then!