In a BOAR model, traditional e-commerce is being nibbled down to nothing ... I suggested that e-commerce is being "burned down". By that, I mean the 1995 - 2009 version of e-commerce is ending ... likely "has ended".
This doesn't mean e-commerce sales will decrease. Quite the opposite. The business model changes, and that means sales flow in different directions.
E-Commerce In A Box (B): You can build a new business from scratch, you can stitch Shopify and Mailchimp and others together and create a brilliant Instagram presence and guess what? You can cannibalizing sales from the OAR portion of the BOAR model. Viewed independently, these brands are irrelevant. Viewed collectively, these brands are a force. Shopify stock was < $50 at the start of 2017. Shopify stock is north of a thousand dollars today. If that sounds like a missed investment opportunity, trust your instincts. E-Commerce In A Box (B) as a collective is a competitive force you're likely not studying, for if you were studying it, you would own Shopify stock.
Omnichannel E-Commerce (O): Lauded as the future in 2014 (ask Macy's ... the embrace of the model cost a lot of Macy's execs jobs), the "O" in the BOAR model is being fundamentally transformed by multiple concurrent forces.
- Government-Chosen Pandemic Winners = Target, Walmart, Home Depot, Lowes.
- Government-Chosen Losers = Any Retail Brand selling apparel, dying now that Zoom owns your meeting structure.
- Losers (and any brand embracing omnichannel retail strategy prior to COVID) closing stores, which help e-commerce in the short-term but harm the ability for e-commerce to grow sales in the long-term because there won't be enough new retail customers to fuel e-commerce in the future. Store closures will yield short-term gain and long-term pain. I hope I'm wrong here.
- What To Do With Empty Stores? Best Buy is converting several to distribution hubs, thrilling omnichannel software vendors and absolutely nobody else.
- If you are not a Government-Chosen Pandemic Winner your sales are going elsewhere, they are flowing OUT of the (O) portion of the equation. You are the Prey in the Predator / Prey model.
- Out of classic e-commerce ... as classic e-commerce is forced into an omnichannel business model.
- Out of classic o-commerce ... the omnichannel business model is being obliterated by government pandemic-based winners/losers, with store closures throttling e-commerce growth. That being said, many traditional e-commerce brands are thriving due to a COVID-bump.
- In to e-commerce-in-a-box (B).
- In to Amazon (A).
- In to Recurring e-commerce (R).