You Quickly Observe Three Segments Of New Buyer Quality, Don't You?

Yesterday's geeky model became today's geeky table, a table that I converted to a plot. I ranked all first-time buyers into 4%-tiles, sorted from best (rank = 1) to worst (rank = 25). Then I plotted rebuy rates against the ranking.

There are first-time buyers who have a 40%+ chance of repurchasing in the next year.

There are a lot of first-time buyers who have a 30% to 40% chance of repurchasing in the next year.

There are a smaller fraction of first-time buyers who have a sub-30% chance of buying again in the next year.

This leads us to what I call a "Welcome Program Action Table":

Green cells are where you take ACTION. You need to act upon the data in these months, pushing the customer toward a second purchase.

Yellow cells are questionable cells. You "could" take action, but it isn't likely to make a huge difference.

Red cells are low response cells. Here, you take minimal action, because the customer is not likely to repurchase.

The goal of a Welcome Program is to ACT upon customers differently than you normally would act. In other words, you don't hotline out some catalogs and blast some emails and call it good. Nooooooo.

How would you teach the new customer to embrace you?