Here are the results of a Logistic Regression used to predict how likely customers are to purchase for a second time within twelve months.Don't worry about what all the geeky numbers have to say ... I didn't even bother to give you column headings.
A few findings.
- Customers acquired in January / March / May / June / July are more valuable than customers acquired in other months.
- Customers acquired in December are about 10.4% less likely to repurchase than are customers acquired in other months. What month do you really crank up the digital advertising to generate new buyers?
- There are merchandise categories that deliver customers with better probabilities of repurchasing ... Categories 03 / 04 / 05 / 07 / 09 yield customers more likely to repurchase.
- "AD1" in this case represented new customers via print. They were 63% more likely to repurchase in the next year than those acquired via other advertising channels. Hopefully the brand didn't spend 75% more to generate an increase in repurchase rates of 63% (hint - that's what frequently happens).
- Customers who purchased because of discounts/promotions (kev_disc) were 3.4% less likely to repurchase in the future.
- Customers who bought items (ABO) that sold for above their historical average (i.e. paying $34.95 for an items that sold for a historical average of $32.95).
- Each item purchased, all things being equal, adds 5.5% to your first-year repurchase rate.