Case Study: The Virus Is Spreading

Yesterday we talked about the fact that Fashion was being starved by a lack of new items. Because existing items either die off quickly or are discontinued quickly, new items must fill the gap if a category is going to thrive.

I summarized all categories - looking at new items by year, as well as demand across new items and existing items. Here we go.

What does the data tell us? A lot. Your category data will communicate to you as well.

Total Business = Starved of New Items.

Apparel Bottoms = Not Starved.

Apparel Tops = Not Starved.

Fashion = Starved.

Home = Starved 2 Years Ago, Lack of New Item Demand in the Past Year.

Jewelry = Starved.

Entertainment = Starved.

Workplace = Drastically Starved.

Outside = Not Starved.

Having Fun = Starved and a Lack of New Item Demand (might be a metaphor in this category).

Seasonal = Starved.

Decorations = Not Starved (many new items 1-2 years ago).

We have Apparel Bottoms, Apparel Tops, Outside, and Decorations that are being managed consistently. Everything else? Being cut to the bone.

Apparel Bottoms / Apparel Tops / Outside / Decorations?

• 1,099 new items three years ago, 1,055 new items today.
• $7.1 million existing demand three years ago, $7.1 million today.
• $6.7 million new item demand three years ago, $5.5 million today.

Everything else?

• 2,047 new items three years ago, 1,125 new items today.
• $7.4 million existing demand three years ago, $5.5 million today.
• $7.2 million new item demand three years ago, $2.6 million today.

In the four "preferred" categories, there is still degradation in new item demand on a comparable number of new items.

All other categories are simply imploding.

This business isn't failing. Management is likely failing the business. Four categories are performing acceptably. I emailed Paisley Ingram a paragraph about what I observed.

From: paisley.ingram@beans.com
Sent: Monday, May 4, 2026 11:13 PM
To: Kevin Hillstrom <kevinh@minethatdata.com>
Subject: RE:  Four Key Categories

 

Kevin, we certainly struggled with our merchandising strategy the past four years. We know that Apparel is performing well, so we elected to prioritize Apparel. Sloane's arrival (our Chief Merchandising Officer) has been invigorating! She has us focused on products and categories that performed well historically. She uses actual performance data to show us "what works", then plans her assortment accordingly. She believes that new items are inherently risky, and any downside to not having enough new items can be overcome by a sound marketing strategy to attract customers or speak to loyal buyers. She strongly believes in a marketing/merchandising partnership that is led by product carryover tactics.

You keep asking interesting questions that stray from marketing, focusing on what we sell and how we sell it. Are you suggesting a gap between our current merchandising strategy and our results?

Best,

Paisley

______________________________________________________

 

From: Kevin Hillstrom <kevinh@minethatdata.com>
Sent: Monday, May 4, 2026 4:57 PM
To: paisley.ingram@beans.com
Subject: Four Key Categories

 

The data suggest that about half of your business is somewhat healthy ... Apparel Bottoms, Apparel Tops, Outside, and Decorations. All other categories show a disinvestment in new items, new items then fail to become existing items, causing those categories to perform poorly over time, with an acceleration in poor performance in the past year. Was there a plan to contract the business, or was there a plan to approach most categories differently and the results observed were unexpected?

Thanks,

Kevin