How Much Worse are First-Time Buyers?

Much, much worse.

The secret to success in e-commerce is getting a customer to a second order. From there, the customer has significantly better long-term value.

Look at the blue line in the image above. These are first-time buyers ... even at the very moment the customer purchases for the first time, the customer only has a 23% chance of buying in the next year. From there, the customer continually becomes less responsive. This is why having a Welcome Action Stream is so darn important ... your odds of converting a first-time buyer are best at months 0/1/2/3 after a first purchase.

After a second purchase, the customer is reasonably responsive. In the image above, a 24 month 2x buyer is as responsive as a 1 month 1x buyer.

In my projects, I create Action Segments. For twelve-month buyers, here's what the segments look like:

• Elite = 75%+ Chance of Buying Again Next Year.
• Loyal = 60% - 74% Chance of Buying Again Next Year.
• Quality = 40% - 59% Chance of Buying Again Next Year.
• Average = 20% - 39% Chance of Buying Again Next Year.
• Struggling = 0% - 19% Chance of Buying Again Next Year.

It's easy to see that the first-time buyer starts in the Average segment, then quickly fades into the Struggling segment. You immediately need a Welcome Action Stream to prevent the customer from falling into Struggling territory ... at which point the newly acquired customer is already at risk of being lost.