February 13, 2024

Once You've Defined A Winner ...

... it becomes your job to determine if the winning item helps or hurts your brand.

How can a winning item possibly hurt your brand?


If the winning item attracts buyers who choose to reduce their spend in the future, then the winning item hurts your brand.

Here's what I want you to do.

Take every winning item from 2022, and perform two calculations for me.

  1. Calculate where in the customer life stage the customer was when the customer purchased the item. Was this the 14th purchase for that customer? If so, create a variable called "LIFESTAGE" and populate the column with a 14 in this instance.
  2. For every item sold in 2022, calculate how much the customer who bought that item in 2022 spent in 2023. Call this variable "FUTURE".

Now, for each winning item, calculate the average "LIFESTAGE" the customer resides in when placing the order. If an item was sold three times and the three customers were on the 1st, 3rd, and 8th order in their LIFESTAGE, the average LIFESTAGE for the item is (1+3+8)/3 = 4.00.

Next, for each winning item, calculate the average "FUTURE" amount the customer who buys the item spends. If the item was sold three times and the three customers spent $0, $0, and $300 in the next year, the average FUTURE for the item is (0+0+300)/100 = $100.00.

Things are about to get interesting!

Tomorrow, we'll get to the interesting part.

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