November 28, 2023

Looking Ahead

Those in the audience that manage catalog-centric e-commerce models ... here's an interesting one for you.

  • "Brand X" has a 25% annual repurchase rate. Projecting to the start of 2024, "Brand X" will have 100,000 customers.
  • Brand "X" averaged 75,000 new/reactivated buyers over the past four years. In 2024, with it being extremely hard to acquire customers via print, the brand is forecasting 40,000 new/reactivated buyers.
If this trend continues ... we can see how many customers we'll have by year.
  • 2023 = 100,000 customers.
  • 2024 = 100,000*0.25 + 40,000 = 65,000 customers.
  • 2025 = 65,000*0.25 + 40,000 = 56,250 customers.
  • 2026 = 56,250*0.25 + 40,000 = 54,063 customers.
  • 2027 = 54,063*0.25 + 40,000 = 53,516 customers.
This is the forecast you need to show your paper rep, your printer, the USPS, your co-op lead. This is what they're doing. In the example above, they're cutting "Brand X" in half.

Yes, you have all these digital channels and offline non-print channels to use ... you've had them for a couple of decades for the most part. You are accountable. But your service providers are accountable as well. Show them what they're accountable for.

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