September 10, 2023

What Will It Take To Grow?

We enter the numbers from last year:

From there, we forecast next year - what do demand/sales look like, what do twelve-moth buyers look like, with varying rebuy rates and varying new/reactivated customer counts?

You started the year with 100,000 twelve-month buyers ... the intersection of a 30% rebuy rate and 60,000 new/reactivated buyers takes you to 90,000 twelve-month buyers.

Oh oh.

What gets you to 100,000 twelve-month buyers?
  • At a flat rebuy rate, you need 72,000 new/reactivated buyers ... +20%. Good luck!
  • With a 34.5% rebuy rate (+15% ... good luck!), you need 66,000 new/reactivated buyers ... +10%.

You either need a 20% increase in new/reactivated buyers, or the combination of a 15% increase in rebuy rates with a 10% increase in new/reactivated buyers.

What will it take to grow?

Heck, it will take a lot just to keep the file static.

It's FORECASTING SEASON ... you are executing against your November/December plan, but somewhere behind the scenes somebody in Marketing and/or Finance and/or Inventory is deep into FORECASTING SEASON for 2024. Somebody has run this scenario (above), and somebody has already told your Executive Team what is coming ... in this case, your Executive Team is not looking forward to 2024. They are planning ahead, as is their job, to combat what looks to be a problematic situation.

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