On Saturday night at about 2:00am EDT the San Diego Padres eliminated the Los Angeles Dodgers.
I made a comment that with a "small sample" of a five-game series, just about anything could happen. Dodgers Twitter found the comment, and spent three days telling me how ignorant I am.
An awful lot of things in life boil down to probabilities. If we have a reasonable guess of how likely something is to happen, we can string together probabilities and determine the odds of, say, the Dodgers losing a series they are favored to win.
Let make two assumptions. These are assumptions, and your assumptions may be better, they may be worse. We cannot know the truth.
- Assumption #1 = Dodgers have a 65% chance of winning a home playoff game vs. San Diego.
- Assumption #2 = Dodgers have a 50% chance of winning a road playoff game at San Diego.
- Win 3 games to 0 = 21%.
- Win 3 games to 1 = 22%.
- Win 3 games to 2 = 24%.
- Lose 3 games to 2 = 13%.
- Lose 3 games to 1 = 14%.
- Lose 3 games to 0 = 6%.
- Win the Series = 67%.
- Lose the Series = 33%.