There's probably more going on than what I will outline here ... but this is generally what I am observing:
- Down 7% due to a lack of file power.
- Down 8% due to higher prices.
- Down 5% due to a lack of new merchandise.
So if business is headed toward a -20% vs. last year (as an example), some of it is because of not having enough new/reactivated buyers in the past year, some of it is due to higher prices, and some of it is due to a lack of new merchandise over the past two years.
Hint - none of these problems are easily/quickly solved. That's why I'm worried about Fall/Winter 2022 into Spring 2023. If your business is already weak, this will be a set of challenges that are difficult to overcome.
If your business is reasonably healthy, well, you have time to overcome the challenges. Get busy! And I get it, you think you are busy trying to solve these problems. I don't think you are busy enough trying to solve these problems. These are huge problems! But they are problems you can solve. You will need merchandising creativity and you will need the kind of marketing creativity you've likely weeded out of your business over the past fifteen years.
Go get 'em!