October 14, 2021

Items Selling Below Their Historical Average

I can't believe I even have to write this given how much I dislike promotions, but here we are. I'm looking at data for the brand we've reviewed over the past two weeks. Remember ... new customers in the best decile had a 58% chance of buying again in the next year ... new customers in the worst decile had a 28% chance of buying again in the next year.

So you want to acquire customers in decile 1/2/3. You want to avoid customers in decile 8/9/10.

I looked at the percentage of merchandise in the order sold below the historical average price point for the item. In other words, if an item was $50 and then was lowered to $40 the historical average might be $48 and if it sold for $40 it sold "below" the historical average.

Top three decile results for percentage of sales sold "below" the historical average?

  • 68% ... 72% ... 68%.
Bottom three decile results for percentage of sales sold "below" the historical average?
  • 46% ... 45% ... 59%.
The best new buyers tend to like items where they are getting deals, according to the analysis.

If you are a "data-driven" professional, you don't look for facts to confirm your bias. You tell the client what they need to do. This client needs to recognize that getting a deal is important to their prospect base.

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