August 02, 2021

What Does The Forecast Look Like?

Recall our comp segment and comp new/reactivated buyer metrics:

  • Comp Segment Performance July 2021 = $10.15.
  • Comp Segment Performance July 2020 = $11.88.
  • Comp Segment Performance July 2019 = $10.06.
And here is the view for new + reactivated buyers:

  • Comp New/Reactivated July 2021 = 15,500.
  • Comp New/Reactivated July 2020 = 28,300.
  • Comp New/Reactivated July 2019 = 17,200.
Using this information, I produced a forecast for the rest of 2021 and for 2022. We can compare to the COVID year of 2020 and the last "normal" year, 2019:

The secret here is to forecast rebuy rates and spend/rebuyer metrics, and then to forecast new/reactivated buyers to the best of our knowledge.

Given what we're seeing with our comp segment and comp new/reactivated buyer counts, I forecasted the rest of 2021 and all of 2022.

Tell me what you observe?

You see a business that loses the COVID-bump ... settles back toward "normal", and is entirely normal by 2022 with a $2.1 million bump in sales caused by having decent file power improvements caused by COVID.

In the next post I'll show you a range of "alternatives".

Email me ( if you'd like me to forecast where your business is headed in 2022 ... $4,900 per run.

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