Undoubtedly you are struggling with forecasting what your top-line looks like in 2022. Did the COVID-bump end? Will performance slump back to 2019 levels, or will there be some gain that can be leveraged in 2022?
You likely already know the answer. You've looked at your comp segment performance, comparing it to 2020 and to 2019. You know what happened to new + reactivated buyer counts vs. 2020 and vs. 2019. This tells you what is coming.
Let's look at a very simple example, based on what happened in July.
- Comp Segment Performance July 2021 = $10.15.
- Comp Segment Performance July 2020 = $11.88.
- Comp Segment Performance July 2019 = $10.06.
- Comp New/Reactivated July 2021 = 15,500.
- Comp New/Reactivated July 2020 = 28,300.
- Comp New/Reactivated July 2019 = 17,200.
- Existing buyer performance is about the same as two years ago (pre-COVID).
- New/Reactivated buyer performance is about -10% to two years ago (pre-COVID).