August 01, 2021

Forecasting Calendar 2022

Undoubtedly you are struggling with forecasting what your top-line looks like in 2022. Did the COVID-bump end? Will performance slump back to 2019 levels, or will there be some gain that can be leveraged in 2022?

You likely already know the answer. You've looked at your comp segment performance, comparing it to 2020 and to 2019. You know what happened to new + reactivated buyer counts vs. 2020 and vs. 2019. This tells you what is coming.

Let's look at a very simple example, based on what happened in July.

  • Comp Segment Performance July 2021 = $10.15.
  • Comp Segment Performance July 2020 = $11.88.
  • Comp Segment Performance July 2019 = $10.06.
And here is the view for new + reactivated buyers:
  • Comp New/Reactivated July 2021 = 15,500.
  • Comp New/Reactivated July 2020 = 28,300.
  • Comp New/Reactivated July 2019 = 17,200.
We already know the story for 2022 "if" things continue as they have in July 2021.
  • Existing buyer performance is about the same as two years ago (pre-COVID).
  • New/Reactivated buyer performance is about -10% to two years ago (pre-COVID).
The business would contract compared to 2019 without file growth, given these figures. COVID file growth will likely carry the business into next year, helping the business squeak out small growth levels.

We'll talk more about this over the next several days.

But between comp segment numbers and comp new/reactivated figures, you likely already know what 2022 looks like.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

The Milkman

In the mockumentary "Unfrosted", Post and Kellog's are in an arms race to create the first unfrosted toaster pastry. Seinfeld&...