January 27, 2021

Emergence at the 12 Month Timeframe

Did you notice the rows I highlighted in the table from a few days ago?

The top four rows are colored red - those are the timeframes when the customer is most responsive.

Now notice what happens at Month = 11 and Month = 12. When the customer lapses to 11/12 months, the customer (in this example) becomes marginally more responsive.

This is a common outcome in my project work. Many brands have customers who like to buy during "Anniversary" events, be it every Christmas, or on Valentine's Day or Easter or they buy gardening products in Spring. Regardless, there is Anniversary behavior that accelerates repurchase behavior.

So the customer briefly "unretires" and becomes active, before settling back into Retirement mode.

In Customer Development, we always pay attention to customers at recency values of 11/12 months since a last purchase. This is a time to reach out and give these customers a reason to buy something, because they are marginally more likely to purchase again. It's an opportunity to move the customer back into an Emergence stage.

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