What Does A COVID-Bump Look Like?

It's not hard to see it ... this is what it looks like across my client work, using my Comp Segment framework (you know how to calculate Comp Segment performance, right?):

If "normal" is +3%, we'll set the axis at +5%. Then in March we see a +5% comp, followed by a nice comp in April and a bonkers comp in May. From there, comps slowly begin to reset closer to normal. For the April - September timeframe, the average comp is +27%. That's what a COVID-bump looks like. Normal performance (+3%) becomes +27%, and the bump has a natural peak and then cools off.

Of course, if the maskless Midwest continues to burn down, then there may be additional restrictions, and those restrictions might inspire another COVID-bump. So we don't know what is going to happen. We do know we can use our Comp Segment framework to measure what is happening, and act accordingly.