February 23, 2020

Walmart = Tepid Q4

Here you go (click here).
  • US Retail Comps = +1.9%.
  • E-Commerce = +35%.
We've all been there. When e-commerce thrives and retail comps struggle, we're dealing with a classic case of File Power.

Think of it this way. Results suggest that sales were $141.7 billion (yes ... billion) in Q4. We can reverse-engineer growth (yes - some new stores muck-up the math, but for illustrative efforts please play along here).
  • Last Year Q4 Sales = $137.1 Billion.
  • Assuming 4.5% of net sales via e-commerce, we get $130.9 billion at retail and $6.2 billion via e-commerce.
  • Retail Growth = $130.9 billion * 1.019 = $133.4 billion ... growth = $2.5 billion.
  • Online Growth = $6.2 billion * 1.350 = $8.3 billion ... growth = $2.1 billion.
  • Total Growth = $4.6 billion ... of which 45.6% came from e-commerce.
We can rest assured that Walmart isn't acquiring a ton of new customers.

In other words, as e-commerce grows, those sales either have to be incremental/additive ... or those sales come at the expense of retail.

A significant fraction of those sales HAVE to be coming at the expense of retail ... no added File Power whatsoever.

We've all been there.
  • Catalog marketing was destroyed as sales shifted online.
  • Retail in-store sales are being mulched as sales shift online.
We all know what comes next, don't we?

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