The MineThatData Forecasting Challenge: Solution #2

The second solution comes to us from the Sisifo Page Team. Click here to read their report:  http://sisifospage.tech/2017-10-30-forecasting-bsts.html.

Here is the three month result (rolling 12 month demand):

• Month 80 = $81.8 million.
• Month 81 = $81.3 million.
• Month 82 = $80.5 million.

Here is their three month forecast:

• Month 80 = $81.5 million.
• Month 81 = $81.2 million.
• Month 82 = $81.0 million.

Here is their "squared error":

• 0.4 Trillion.  This solution takes the lead!

Solution #3 is tomorrow - we'll see how this solution compares!




P.S.: There was a glitch yesterday, which has been corrected. The Staykova / Bass solution (click here) is as follows:

Here is the three month result (rolling 12 month demand):

• Month 80 = $81.9 million.
• Month 81 = $81.3 million.
• Month 82 = $80.5 million.

Here is their three month forecast:

• Month 80 = $81.7 million.
• Month 81 = $81.5 million.
• Month 82 = $81.3 million.

Here is their "squared error":

• 0.7 Trillion.