Taking Advantage of the Minus Indicator

Here's data for customers with two life-to-date purchases. We're measuring the probability of the customer buying in the next year.

The arrow is important ... that's where the customer slumps to a lower Action Segment. At four months of recency, the customer has a 39.2% chance of buying in the next year. The customer just dropped from what I call a "Quality" Action Segment to a "Average" Action Segment.

• 1 Month = 46.1% Rebuy Rate, Quality Action Segment.
• 2 Months = 43.2% Rebuy Rate, Quality Action Segment.
• 3 Months = 41.1% Rebuy Rate, Quality Action Segment.
• 4 Months = 39.2% Rebuy Rate, Average Action Segment.
• 5 Months = 37.9% Rebuy Rate, Average Action Segment.
• 6 Months = 36.6% Rebuy Rate, Average Action Segment.
• 7 Months = 35.2% Rebuy Rate, Average Action Segment.
• 8 Months = 33.8% Rebuy Rate, Average Action Segment.
• 9 Months = 32.6% Rebuy Rate, Average Action Segment.
• 10 Months = 32.0% Rebuy Rate, Average Action Segment.
• 11 Months = 31.1% Rebuy Rate, Average Action Segment.
• 12 Months = 30.4% Rebuy Rate, Average Action Segment.

At three month of recency, the customer is about to drop to a lower Action Segment. This is where the "minus" indicator kicks in, causing you to kick off an Action Stream to try to prevent the customer from falling to a lower-value segment.

Does that make sense?