There Isn't A Lot Of Time To Take Action

This is a VERY COMMON situation. On the x-axis, we have months since a first purchase. On the y-axis, we have the monthly conditional repurchase rate. In other words, let's say you acquire a customer, and the customer has a 3.6% chance of buying again in the first month with your brand. If the customer does not repurchase, the customer slips to a recency=2 month segment, and the monthly conditional (conditional on the fact that the customer has yet to buy again) rebuy rate slips to 1.9%.

There are three things worth pointing out in this graph (this is actual data, folks).

1. As mentioned a thousand times here, if the customer does not buy for a second time within three months, the customer quickly becomes inactive.
2. As mentioned a hundred times here, look at the peaks at months 12/24/36. This happens when a business has a strong seasonal component ... a seed business selling garden products in April ... a gift business selling stuff in November/December. Seasonal peaks are key reactivation triggers that almost nobody takes advantage of.
3. After twelve months, the customer is generally not coming back.

In this example, the first-time buyer only has a 15% chance of buying again in the next year, and only a 26% chance of buying again within four years. Hint - your business might look better than this, but not a lot better than this. Run this analysis - it's going to look similar.

Here's where marketers fail our businesses.

There should be four separate programs for these customers.

1. Welcome program for months 1/2/3 after a first purchase. If you don't convert the customer to a second purchase here, you've got problems.
2. Educational program for months 4/5/6/7/8/9/10 to keep the customer interested ... or as the kids say, "engaged". Here, you want the customer interacting with your content, given how unlikely the customer is to purchase again.
3. Anniversary programs for months 11/12/13/23/24/25/35/36/37. Push the product families the customer purchased in a first order, remind the customer of the anniversary event.
4. Low-Cost programs for all other months. Do not spend money on an unresponsive customer. Outside of email, social, and your website, do not spend money unless you can prove significant ROI. Use free content to "engage" the customer.

There isn't a lot of time to take action when you acquire a new customer. Reactivation is all about capitalizing on key windows when the fish are biting. Go fishing immediately, then be smart thereafter.