NOTE: This is the final offer of a $4,900 2022 forecast. Forecasting will become a full-fledged project going forward, likely costing 3x as much as this introductory offer. Please respond by 12:00pm PDT on Wednesday, August 25 if you would like to participate (firstname.lastname@example.org).
By now, all of you have a forecast for 2022 that looks something like this.
Prior to COVID, this business did $24.7 million, then $25.6 million, then had a bad year and slumped to $23.5 million.
COVID changed everything. Rebuy rates improved, and new/reactivated counts jumped to nearly 105,000, sending Calendar 2020 to a $29.9 million outcome.
But as you already know, business is slumping back to normal. In the past year we see that rebuy rates decreased, spend per repurchaser actually decreased after years of gains, and new/reactivated counts are rapidly in decline after a monster 2020.
This requires us to create a projection for the rest of Calendar 2021. Forecasted customer counts at the end of 2021 lead to a forecast for 2022.
Calendar 2020 was $29.9 million.
Calendar 2021 is forecast to be $26.5 million.
Calendar 2022 is forecast to be $22.8 million.
Forecasts are a direct result of our Customer Development efforts. We had all of those "COVID-buyers". If we didn't do something to nurture and develop them in 2020/2021, our businesses will revert back to historical levels in 2022. It's not the fault of the forecaster. It's not an issue of "bad assumptions". It's an outcome.