February 16, 2021

Each Audience

In a Customer Development project, each customer is scored. I predict how likely the customer is to purchase in the next year. I predict how much the customer will spend if the customer buys next year. Multiplied together, we have "12-Month Sales Value" or "TMSV".

There are many ways clients use this information.

Among first-time buyers, companies quickly personalize the experience of the first-time buyer.

Let's say a customer bought one item on a first order, from an affiliate, from category 05. My model might predict a probability of purchase in the next year of 17.3%.

Let's say a customer bought four items on a first order, from email marketing, with category 08 as the primary category. The model might suggest that the customer has a 30.3% chance of buying in the next year.

Are you going to treat each customer the same?

For catalogers - should each customer get the same catalog?

Email marketers - should each customer above get the same email frequency? Same content? Same creative presentation? Same messaging?

Discounts / Promotions - should they be the same? Different?

I could go on.

If you are working through your Customer Development efforts, you have different tactics designed to stimulate a second purchase for each customer above. Each audience has different needs, requiring different tactics.

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