Last week I discussed predator / prey models ... stuff like coyotes eating rabbits. The models clearly show that if all the rabbits disappear, coyotes disappear. You have to have rabbits or you don't have coyotes. The ecosystem reaches an equilibrium. It has to.
Modern e-commerce is burning down. Nobody is talking about this, of course, because it would cause everybody to have to think very carefully about the future.
Want proof that e-commerce is burning down?
In a normal year, I'd get a lot of consulting requests. This year, I get questions. Here's the primary question(s) I get now.
- "What do I do if the USPS cannot deliver packages, if the UPS charges $4 more to deliver packages, and if FedEx puts a cap on how many packages they're willing to deliver? What do I do if the USPS cannot reliably deliver catalogs because of political issues? What do I do if customers want my product in November and nobody will deliver it to the customer?"
That's what it looks like when e-commerce is burning down.
The Executive will say something like "who could have seen this coming?".
That's when I'll mention how Amazon saw this coming and did something about it years ago and now they have more than 30,000 of these vans out there delivering merchandise and if Amazon saw it coming and did something about it how did the rest of the industry miss it?
Then the Executive gets frustrated, because the Executive was looking for sympathy as opposed to pondering how a company will get merchandise to you in the future.
I'll stop there for today. More tomorrow.
P.S.: "Commerce" is fine, by the way, if you're allowed to be open or sell stuff the customer wants during a pandemic or you sell something the customer needs and you are allowed to sell it. Or you sell something addictive, 'cause dang does that stuff work during a pandemic!
P.P.S.: I also get calls that start this way ... "I feel guilty to say this, but we're +27% this year." Happens all the time.
P.P.P.S.: Your print community is telling you that the USPS is fine, and it may well be fine. Or it isn't. But tell me why you'd believe the print community when they keep telling you that print is making a resurgence (they say this over and over and over again) while the USPS sources the data for this image:
P.P.P.P.S.: If Amazon is surging, why would e-commerce be burning down? And why would e-commerce be burning down when so many people are doing so well? That topic will be addressed tomorrow.
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