Recall our Life Table for first-time buyers (click here).
Read down the MONTHLY RATE column. You see the high level of response in the first few months after a customer becomes a buyer. Then response quickly sinks. Now look at what happens at Month = 12.
Tell me what you think is happening there?
This outcome is common in my project work ... customers "reawaken" briefly at Month = 12.
Say a customer purchased for the first time on Cyber Monday. That customer will "reawaken" twelve months later ... which ironically enough would be next year's Cyber Monday.
This timeframe (Month = 12) is the final timeframe where you (the marketer or analyst or Executive) make an effort with your Welcome Program. It's your last hurrah!