The past two weeks have been leading up to a realization ...
... the realization is that we're not good at understanding how cohorts of customers behave.
Think of it this way ... we're really good at "campaigns". We "target" a group of customers, we attempt to get those customers to buy something, and then we measure how good of a job we did.
When we view customers as a cohort, we come to different conclusions about how customers behave. We learn that there is a pre-set motion that customers go through, and we (if we're good marketers marketing great merchandise) are simply pushing that process a bit.
Let's go a bit further tomorrow, ok?