Hashtag Analytics: A Twitter "Storm"

The weather folks in Portland, OR use #pdxtst to share information about weather-related events.  So whenever a "storm" is coming, you'll observe a "Twitter Storm"!

In late November, there was talk of a big storm coming to the Pacific Northwest.  In the four weeks prior to talk of a big storm, there wasn't much activity in the community:

Recency	Cases	Engage	# Engage
1 Week	26	34.4%	9
2 Weeks	20	20.1%	4
3 Weeks	15	13.3%	2
4 Weeks	8	29.9%	2
2 Months	38	10.8%	4
3 Months	47	4.2%	2
4-6 Mo.	254	2.5%	6
7-9 Mo.	108	1.2%	1
10-12 Mo.	20	1.4%	0
Newbies	8	100.0%	8
Percent Newbies =		19.4%

Basically, there isn't much to talk about, and this is a closed community, without many new folks participating.

And then, the weather changes.  Take a look at how the metric change as a result!

Recency	Cases	Engage	# Engage
1 Week	45	71.1%	32
2 Weeks	5	80.0%	4
3 Weeks	15	53.3%	8
4 Weeks	40	52.5%	21
2 Months	18	38.9%	7
3 Months	39	33.3%	13
4-6 Mo.	221	19.0%	42
7-9 Mo.	140	20.7%	29
10-12 Mo.	27	7.4%	2
Newbies	292	100.0%	292
Percent Newbies =		64.9%

Pow!!

Notice that engagement rates go bonkers, regardless of recency since last tweet.  The entire population is buzzing about this event!  Even more important, nearly two out of every three "tweeters" are new to the #pdxtst.


Now, we need to see what happens the following week.  Take a look at engagement rates.

Recency	Cases	Engage	# Engage
1 Week	450	6.9%	31
2 Weeks	13	0.0%	0
3 Weeks	1	0.0%	0
4 Weeks	7	0.0%	0
2 Months	21	0.0%	0
3 Months	32	0.0%	0
4-6 Mo.	137	0.0%	0
7-9 Mo.	150	0.7%	1
10-12 Mo.	31	0.0%	0
Newbies	5	100.0%	5
Percent Newbies =		13.5%

Clearly, there wasn't anything worth talking about, so the community shut down.


The following week, there's a bit more buzz, but only among recent participants.

Recency	Cases	Engage	# Engage
1 Week	37	35.1%	13
2 Weeks	419	2.6%	11
3 Weeks	13	0.0%	0
4 Weeks	1	0.0%	0
2 Months	28	0.0%	0
3 Months	28	7.1%	2
4-6 Mo.	133	0.8%	1
7-9 Mo.	154	0.0%	0
10-12 Mo.	34	0.0%	0
Newbies	8	100.0%	8
Percent Newbies =		22.8%

I'm going to show you what happens for one more week.  Pay attention to the glut of folks who participated during the winter weather event ... they've dropped down to three weeks of recency.

Recency	Cases	Engage	# Engage
1 Week	35	54.3%	19
2 Weeks	24	37.5%	9
3 Weeks	408	15.9%	65
4 Weeks	13	15.4%	2
2 Months	27	11.1%	3
3 Months	21	4.8%	1
4-6 Mo.	107	7.5%	8
7-9 Mo.	175	1.7%	3
10-12 Mo.	45	4.4%	2
Newbies	58	100.0%	58
Percent Newbies =		34.1%

Ok, there's weather to talk about this week, and the audience comes back --- but most important, there's the glut of people with three weeks of recency ... those folks engage at a normal rate, but there are so many people in this cohort that they fuel the conversation ... sixty-five people in this band engage about lousy weather.


What's the point of this analysis?


There are two key takeaways:

1. When something goes viral, you end up with a large cohort of individuals who have the potential to fuel a conversation in the future.
2. For there to be a conversation, there has to be something to talk about.  Notice how this community comes to life when there is something to talk about!

In other words, a significant weather event "awakened" this community, fueling high engagement rates, and fueling a ginormous increase in new users.  But a ton of new users/followers/fans doesn't mean anything unless this audience has something to talk about.  Counts and numbers have very little meaning ... having something to talk about is important.

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