When Low-Value Counts Hold While High-Value Counts Are Flat ...

Here is the evolution of file counts ...


Here is the evolution of rebuy rates.


The evolution of file counts coupled with rebuy rates yield the following five-year forecast.


The forecast isn't very positive, is it?

Movement in the file happens among low-value customers.

Notice, however, that there is growth among high-value customers (red in the rebuy graph). And the forecast shows that demand per buyer will increase, and average order values will increase. Clearly, this company is trying to squeeze as much out of good customers as possible.

But not enough to offset weakness among lower-value segments.

More on the topic tomorrow.


"Forecasting outcomes are the sum of all analytics and marketing knowledge possessed by your company."