May 30, 2007

A Forecasting Quiz

All right folks, here's your chance to shine!

Last year, you mailed a catalog to three of the five customer segments you manage. The results are listed in the table below:

Last Year's Catalog Performance








Households LY Catalog LY Online LY Totals





Customer Segment 1 50,000 $5.75 $4.25 $500,000
Customer Segment 2 60,000 $3.25 $3.75 $420,000
Customer Segment 3 75,000 $2.50 $3.25 $431,250
Customer Segment 4 110,000
$1.90 $209,000
Customer Segment 5 150,000
$1.65 $247,500





Mailed Totals 185,000 $3.62 $3.68 $1,351,250
Other Segments 260,000
$1.76 $456,500
Grand Totals 445,000

$1,807,750

In total, your customers spent $1.8 million dollars. As you can see, the fourth and fifth customer segments did not receive a catalog, and consequently, did not generate any telephone/catalog demand. Last year totals are calculated by multiplying households by the sum of catalog and online demand. For instance, in customer segment 1, total demand = 50,000 * ($5.75 + $4.25) = $500,000.

This year, you have a new forecast of households in each segment. In addition, your management team is allowing you to mail each of the five segments of customers.

The quiz: Tell our loyal readers how much demand, in total, you expect to occur by mailing all five customer segments. Explain your logic in the comments section of this post. Good luck!!

This Year's Projection









Households TY Catalog TY Online TY Totals





Customer Segment 1 62,000


Customer Segment 2 68,000


Customer Segment 3 79,000


Customer Segment 4 125,000


Customer Segment 5 195,000







Grand Totals 529,000