A Change In Outcome

Sometimes you read stuff that is just so awful you wonder how people keep their jobs?

Coming out of the Great Recession, it was common to see shortfalls in the number of new customers. I'd forecast the next five years, and it was obvious the brand being studied could not "keep up" ... sales were going to contract because the company could not find enough new customers.

Then COVID happened ... with customers trapped in their homes for a few months, new customers were plentiful ... and we got lazy. At the same time we got lazy, startups built new ways to find customers. We see it every day in 2025, but the roots of what we see in 2025 were planted in 2020. So many of us became movie-makers, building community in the process.

Those who missed out on this trend moved in the opposite direction. As new customers dried up (reverting to historical trends, which were not good trends), e-commerce folks did two things to attempt to make up the difference.

1. Ridiculous discounts/promotions.
2. Marketplaces.

Both accelerate a new problem ... the quality of the new customer is so bad that even if there is a modest increase in new customers there is frequently a modest decrease in future sales. This is something I didn't see back in 2010 ... but it's here now.

The best new customer is a previous prospect that you've nurtured. The prospect followed you on Instagram, subscribed to your YouTube content, opted-in to email campaigns. The prospect is on three lists ... and you old-school direct marketers are always looking for lists ... these are the "lists" you should care about, home-grown low-cost lists. When these prospects become new customers, you'll find they are frequently "S-Tier" new customers ... they care about you, they aren't there for a transaction, they believe in the relationship that has been developed.

Later this week I'll reveal a new direction in project work. As always, you're going to get the first opportunity to benefit. Contact me now (kevinh@minethatdata.com) if you want more details prior to the announcement.