tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32202893.post4972443920824046057..comments2023-10-18T08:32:17.510-07:00Comments on Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData: Online Marketers And Predicting The FutureUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32202893.post-17901263711080182442007-08-29T23:31:00.000-07:002007-08-29T23:31:00.000-07:00Thanks for adding to the comments, I appreciate it...Thanks for adding to the comments, I appreciate it!<BR/><BR/>Online marketers will make progress, it will happen.MineThatDatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14014200122021988374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32202893.post-64039235478254883372007-08-29T08:04:00.000-07:002007-08-29T08:04:00.000-07:00Stumbled across your post this morning and you are...Stumbled across your post this morning and you are absolutely correct. We (online marketers) have had such a difficult time convincing brands to spend money online commensurate with eyeballs and time spent. To build advertisng-based predictive models was what caused the first bubble to burst as everyone jumped in with misguided expectations. The idea has everyone jumpy.<BR/><BR/>We've got some legs to stand on now, and aren't afraid that brands will turn completely away. We need to be doing more modeling as you've suggested to rationalize the outcomes of one approach vs. another.<BR/><BR/>Great post!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32202893.post-41518246899136647242007-08-17T21:09:00.000-07:002007-08-17T21:09:00.000-07:00Your last paragraph sums it up well!Your last paragraph sums it up well!MineThatDatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14014200122021988374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32202893.post-88091752322825855292007-08-17T19:09:00.000-07:002007-08-17T19:09:00.000-07:00I figured we were talking about the same thing in ...I figured we were talking about the same thing in different ways...perhaps the difference between the perspective of an analyst and a marketer?<BR/><BR/>Anyway, as a marketer, I would never be looking for a prediction of $10, what I would be looking for is a relative comparison of the strength or weakness of an approach. <BR/><BR/>If I can predict which campaign will generate more profit, it doesn't really matter if that profit is $10 or $9.49, if I'm comparing to $6 and $4 (or $5.76 and $4.32). If there is not enough of a "spread" to make a call on which campaign is better, then I don't yet have a model that works and there is no prediction.<BR/><BR/>A predictive model is simply math, and since most web analytics folks have a background in IT, I would expect they don't have an issue with the math.<BR/><BR/>Rather, from what I have seen, it comes down to this: web analytics folks have been so successful with the "let's test it and see what the facts say" pitch to management that going in with a "prediction" is culturally problematic for them and perceived as a risk.<BR/><BR/>Hopefully we can change that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32202893.post-25263633265794677102007-08-17T18:16:00.000-07:002007-08-17T18:16:00.000-07:00I'm actually fully supportive of predictive modeli...I'm actually fully supportive of predictive modeling, fully supportive!<BR/><BR/>What I failed to communicate is that predictive modeling is great, in spite of the fact that you're always wrong.<BR/><BR/>For instance, if you use RFM, ou might predict that the best segment will spend $10.00.<BR/><BR/>That segment will never perform at $10.00 ... the segment might do $9.49 or $10.63.<BR/><BR/>In that sense, you're always wrong. And yet, you will make your business a fortune using RFM.<BR/><BR/>So what I failed to say is that it is 100% ok to always be wrong. It really is ok to be wrong all the time!<BR/><BR/>This is what I see that is missing from some of the online marketing folks I work with. I see an unwillingness to stick one's neck out, because there is a high probability of being wrong.<BR/><BR/>What I was trying to communicate is that it's good to be wrong, and we have to mentor our online marketing partners to be wrong more often.<BR/><BR/>I was in 100% agreement with what you wrote!MineThatDatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14014200122021988374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32202893.post-44640357187406893372007-08-17T17:30:00.000-07:002007-08-17T17:30:00.000-07:00Kevin, are you saying that predictive models don't...Kevin, are you saying that predictive models don't work?<BR/><BR/>Perhaps we are talking about different kinds of prediction, but I'm not aware of any predictive models that "guarantee to be wrong all of the time"...<BR/><BR/>Or are you saying that even if you use a predictive model and it gives you a prediction, you should ignore it and wait for the results?<BR/><BR/>For example, I'm pretty sure you used the RFM model or some variant of it in circulation planning to avoid mailing catalogs to folks who were very unlikely to respond. Did you do the circ planning and then mail catalogs to the "unlikely to respond" folks anyway?<BR/><BR/>The online version of the same scenario is this: Given 3 online campaigns, and the ability to predict which will be most profitable within a week or so of starting the campaigns using a basic Recency model, should I just go ahead and continue spending on the weak campaigns anyway?<BR/><BR/>If you are advocating this approach, that's exactly what doesn't make any sense to me - isn't that a waste of money, isn't that the opposite of "optimization"?<BR/><BR/>As a circ planner, wouldn't you get fired for intentionally mailing catalogs to folks you knew were unlikely to respond?<BR/><BR/>I'm thinking you misunderstood the thrust of my post, and if it was not clear, perhaps now it is...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32202893.post-70722260730690916902007-08-17T00:25:00.000-07:002007-08-17T00:25:00.000-07:00Great blog, I have also created a lens in a same n...Great blog, I have also created a lens in a same niche. This is my first time , hope u guys like it. Here’s a brief intro: …..Are you fed up with work? Maybe your boss is a grade-A pain in the behind. Well, don't fret about your current situation; it's time to look for an alternative route to income. That company office cubicle isn't the only way to earn a living. These days there are opportunities opening up all the time. With the World-Wide-Web in full swing, many individuals are turning to the Internet in search of a money making business. Have you ever considered this new-age road of opportunity?ankurhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11256958159499952364noreply@blogger.com