Judy, Jennifer, Jasmine: Happy Birthday!

On January 1, Judy turned 60 years old.  Jennifer is now a 44 year old shopper.  Jasmine is 28, beginning her 29th lap around the sun.  Happy Birthday!!

Remember, there are fundamental truths about these personas, validated across numerous research projects.

1. Judy = MAIL MORE CATALOGS.  Yes ... MORE!  Catalogers should love this!  In almost all of my projects, catalogers are UNDER-MAILING Judy!  Yes, under-mailing.
2. Jennifer = MAIL FEWER CATALOGS.  Instead of 18 a year, maybe 3-9 a year.  Take all of the money you save here, and reinvest it in a new Tablet Commerce Solution, for instance (click here).  Allocate the money online.  Go where Jennifer is.
3. Jasmine = START A NEW BRAND.  Her needs are fundamentally different than the catalog solutions or e-commerce solutions offered by catalog-focused brands.  Stop mailing Jasmine, take your catalog dollars, and reinvest them by focusing on a new brand that meets her needs.

Please click here to get Judy / Jennifer / Jasmine project pricing ... this is a good time of the year to get busy on implementing new ideas that will impact the Fall and Christmas timeframe.

Keep in mind --- Judy is 60 now ... 5 years from retirement ... and Jennifer is just 6 years away from being 50 years old.  Her future trajectory will not be in the social/mobile/local realm, based on the data I'm looking at (though we'll see - your mileage will vary).

Still available for next to nothing on Amazon.com (click here!).

Wall St. Journal Article on Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine

When the Wall St. Journal writes about Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine (not using the names, obviously), folks pay attention.  Click here to read an article from November titled "Shopping's Great Age Divide".

If you're analyzing actual customers transactions from your customer database, you know this article hits on an important trend.  The channels you choose to use in your "marketing mix" attract Judy, Jennifer, or Jasmine ... seldom attracting all three.  Your creative strategy attracts Judy, Jennifer, or Jasmine ... seldom attracting all three.  Your merchandising strategy plays a role as well ... seldom attracting all three.

You get to pick your customers.  Once you pick your customers, the channels that work best are pre-defined for you.  

Jennifer and the Direct Marketing Success Pyramid

Yesterday, we talked about Judy.  Today, we focus on Jennifer.

FYI - click here to download a pdf copy of the Direct Marketing Success Pyramid ... it is the most popular download of 2012, based on metrics about my blog.

Merchandise:  Jennifer doesn't want to feel ripped off.  We know this, because she scours the internet in search of the best deal, just analyze her attribution trail!  In other words, she's not brand loyal, she's product loyal, trying to find a specific product.  Often, Amazon is her first stop.  Often, Google facilitates how she scours the internet.  Based on the data I analyze, Jennifer likes new products.  The merchandise farm system needs to be well-stocked in order to keep Jennifer interested.

Creative:  This is strictly an opinion, folks.  I think creative means less to Jennifer than to Judy or Jasmine.  Jennifer wasn't weaned on creative, she was weaned on Amazon, Google, Zappos.  It is my opinion that Jennifer needs information.  So give it to her!  Images, video, social, copy, mobile, all could be designed to provide Jennifer with the information she needs to make decisions.  Jennifer leaves your brand to get information, so combat that by giving her all the information she needs, so she won't search elsewhere.

Finance:  In Jennifer's world, Finance means "attribution".  Jennifer's generation of analysts are utterly stymied by a world where Jennifer touches eighteen different channels  before buying something.  Which of the 18 clicks drove the purchase?  We tie ourselves in knots arguing nonsense!  Remember, Jennifer isn't using channels for the sake of using channels, she's "searching" for the best product at the best price with free, expedited shipping ... that's all.  The more granular the analyst gets, the more likely the analyst is going to be wrong.  I believe that, in time, we'll learn to look at Jennifer's investment relationship as a function of time, not of channels/touchpoints.  We'll simply realize that the omnichannel relationship is a "digital" relationship, requiring an investment in "digital".  CSEs and Affiliates and Email and Search are all just byproducts of trying to find the best merchandise and the best price with free, expedited shipping.

Passion:  Jennifer values information.  Similarly, employees passionate about marketing to Jennifer are passionate about information.  The entire "Google Analytics Generation" has a passion for making decisions based on real-time information.  Passion is really a fusion of merchandise and information.  This is a very different relationship than the old merchandise reports that Judy-focused businesses evaluate.  Passion results in fast decisions, and rapid response to market conditions.

Excellence:  You ever wonder how Zappos went from $0 to a billion in a few short years?  They gave Jennifer exactly what she wanted ... they gave her information, free shipping, free returns, and delivered her product in 1-2 days.  That's what excellence looks like to Jennifer.  This will be in stark contrast to the Finance objective of being profitable ... a Finance executive used to managing Judy will balk at what is required to serve Jennifer.  Excellence will require the Finance folks and Marketing folks to work together to yield a profitable outcome, shedding expense elsewhere.

Knowledge:  Jennifer-focused businesses know more about how a customer converts on a web page than anybody else.  This knowledge could be a hindrance, however, as the evolution from a web-focused world to an app-focused world continues.  We don't know if Jennifer will follow Jasmine into an app-focused world ... she probably will do this, but the story is yet to be told.  Regardless, the Jennifer-focused business needs to know far more about customer behavior than the Judy-focused business needs to know.  Reports are important to understanding Judy ... Analytics are important to understanding Jennifer.

Vision:  Executives are going to face challenges.  Jasmine's generation, which is far larger than Jennifer's generation, will shape all innovation in the next ten years.  Executives will want to follow Jasmine's lead.  Oh boy.  That may not work with Jennifer, given that she'll be approaching 50 years old in the next seven years, and will become more set in her ways.  I think we're going to see a lot of Executives pivot out of Jennifer, into Jasmine's generation.  This is going to be very interesting, and will require keen vision to execute a successful transition between generations.

Evolution:  Vision leads to Evolution.  We hard-wired Jennifer into appreciation of a world led by Google/Amazon.  It is going to be hard to get her to change her habits, as Jennifer approaches 50 years old.  The very changes that benefit Jennifer will conflict with the preferences that Jasmine will exhibit.  Marketing to Jennifer will become more niche-oriented, given the significantly smaller size of her demographic cohort.  Anytime you hear "web-based", think Jennifer.  Anytime you hear "app-based", think Jasmine.  It will be hard to serve both audiences.  I don't think we know how this evolution will happen.

Chemistry:  I see better chemistry among Jennifer-focused businesses than I see among Judy-focused businesses. It seems like Judy-focused businesses "know everything" already (after marketing to the same customer for thirty years, they should know everything).  It seems like Jennifer-focused businesses are more open to opposing points of view.  We'll see if the pressure of the app-based internet consumes the chemistry earned by employees weaned on a web-based internet.

Tomorrow, we focus on Jasmine.

Good Questions!

Here's an email I received recently:

• "Your work on Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine got me to thinking about a few things.  Specifically, what happens when Judy stops buying merchandise?  I've invested my entire life in the field of Direct Mail.  I believe I am an expert in this area.  But what do I do when Judy stops buying merchandise?  What do I do for a job then?"

And here is another email I recently received:

• "Do you think we can convince Jadyn (the 15 year old that will replace Jasmine in a decade) to love Direct Mail the way Judy loves Direct Mail?"

Ah!  Now we are getting somewhere.

Our industry doesn't want to ask hard questions.

We need to ask hard questions.

I can take us back to Nordstrom, when we decided to kill the catalog.  You want to talk about a mass exodus, well, there was a mass exodus.  With the catalog gone, the work that people loved to do was also gone.  You could make a choice ... you could recalibrate skills to deal with the business as it existed ... you could switch to a new department and start over ... you could leave the company and find a place where the work you loved doing still existed.

People pursued every one of those options.

We can easily answer the second question.  We're not going to train Jadyn to love Direct Mail.  And we're not going to train Jasmine to love Direct Mail.  In 13 years, Jasmine will be in her prime earning years.  Just think what the world will look like in 13 years?

Jennifer has already been trained to trust two parties ... Amazon and Google.

Judy loves Direct Mail.  She has another 5-10 years to spend money.

Given that information, how would you answer the first question?

Conversion Rates: Judy, Jennifer, Jasmine

You remember our lovely ladies:

The first lady is Judy.  She's around 59 years old, and her behaviors tend to be "old-school" ... she buys via catalogs, and while she embraces new technology, she primarily shops via habits derived in the 1980s and 1990s.

The second lady is Jennifer.  She's around 43 years old, and her behaviors are hard to "attribute".  She hunts online for the best products at the best prices, touching many marketing channels.

The third lady is Jasmine.  She's around 27 years old.  Her behaviors are not consistent with Judy and Jennifer.  Social and Mobile are part of her entire adult experience.

We can analyze online customer behavior via each persona.  Here's a query I recently ran ... segmenting customers as of June 30, 2012, measuring online visit behavior from July 1, 2012 to July 31, 2012.  Each persona represents weighted life-to-date transactions for twelve month buyers.

Judy:

• 38,498 customers.
• 18.9% Re-Visit Rate.
• 3.568 monthly visits per visitor.
• 0.674 purchases per visitor.
• 7.3% conversion rate.
• 0.049 purchases per customer.

Jennifer:

• 143,984 customers.
• 24.3% Re-Visit Rate.
• 4.387 monthly visits per visitor.
• 1.066 purchases per visitor.
• 5.9% conversion rate.
• 0.063 purchases per customer.

Jasmine:

• 88,430 customers.
• 28.8% Re-Visit Rate.
• 5.220 monthly visits per visitor.
• 1.503 purchases per visitor.
• 5.2% conversion rate.
• 0.078 purchases per customer.

Notice that Jasmine is far more "engaged" than Judy or Jennifer.  Judy is much less likely to visit the website, and if she visits, she only visited 3.6 times in July.  Jasmine, meanwhile, is 50% more likely to visit than Judy, and will visit every 5-6 days.  Judy is more "purpose driven" than Jasmine, converting at a much higher rate.  Jasmine, however, because of her high likelihood of visit regularity, buys much more often online.

This is something the conversion optimization gurus sometimes miss ... we want Jasmine's behavior, but we optimize for Judy's behavior.  This is exactly opposite of what we should do.  We want more visits at a lower conversion rate, if the net result is a significant increase in total purchases, as it is in this example with Jasmine.

Chasing Fireflies and Jennifer

By now, you've read that HSN / Cornerstone purchased Chasing Fireflies, a catalog-based business that grew from $0 to $39,000,000 in annual sales in just six years.


I want for you to think about a few things, regarding Chasing Fireflies.

1. Growth was largely fueled by catalogs.  CATALOGS, folks.  Name one marketing expert who believes that growth via catalogs is a best practice ... go ahead, I'll wait while you put your list together ... I'm still waiting ...
2. This wasn't done via Social Media ... 475 followers embracing 73 tweets on Twitter?  And yet, there's something about the business worth talking about, given that 20,733 folks like the brand on Facebook, but there isn't much "engagement" as the experts like to say ... meaning that the likes are merchandise-based.  Maybe that's important, huh?
3. The core online audience is Jennifer ... click here for data from Quantcast.  I'd bet that there's a Judy-based offline audience purchasing as well, an audience that isn't observed by Quantcast.
4. Punch up the website on your phone ... no mobile website as best I can tell.

Maybe we need to step back and stop adoring channels.  Maybe we've been deluded.  Maybe a link between merchandise (in this case, childrens apparel) and audience (Jennifer) matters.

Homework assignment:  Discuss with your Executive team the reasons that a catalog-based kids business was able to grow from $0 to $39,000,000 in the social/mobile/local era.  Do any of the lessons apply to your business?

Email Marketing: Jennifer

Hint:  Jennifer likes email marketing.


Well, she likes the discounts and promotions in email marketing campaigns!


Remember, Jennifer is all about using online marketing channels to find the best deal possible for the merchandise she wants to purchase.


The majority of best practices in email marketing are designed to speak directly to Jennifer.


Jennifer actually clicks through email campaigns and purchases ... this is one of the signs that the customer is Jennifer.  Judy subscribes to email campaigns to learn, Jennifer subscribes, clicks through, and purchases.


When segmenting your audience into Judy / Jennifer / Jasmine cohorts, be sure to customize the message based on what each unique cohort wants to accomplish.  Jennifer likes new products, she likes great prices, and she loves %-off and free shipping.

What Happens When We Stop Mailing Jennifer?

Yesterday, we decided to mail 70% fewer catalogs, per year, to Jasmine.  This money could easily be reinvested in a way that would be positive to the business, though if you don't want to reinvest it, fine, pocket a 13% increase in profit over five years.


But what about Jennifer, our 43 year old Google-loving online advocate?


Jennifer is influenced by catalogs, she'll go online and buy something after completing her research on Google.


Here's the base case, again.

From testing, we surmise that Jennifer will still generate 45% of demand if she is no longer mailed catalogs.  Let's see what happens when we cut back catalog mailings by 50%:

That doesn't look like a good decision, does it?


In fact, in the business I'm analyzing here, I could not find a single case where reducing catalogs to Jennifer represented a good idea, on any level.


In our example:

• Continue to Mail Jennifer a Full Diet of Catalogs.
• Reduce Catalogs to Jasmine by 70% per Year.

Now, honestly, in most of my Catalog PhD projects, the results are more significant than this.  We're looking at significant cuts to both Jennifer and Jasmine.  But that's not what matters, folks.  What matters is that we run a five year simulation, estimating what might happen to the business if we make key business decisions like this.


Contact me if you'd like for me to create a five year simulation like this for your business!

Compare and Contrast

Think about marketing channels, think about our three customers, and things become much more clear, don't they?


Catalog Marketing:

• Judy = 30+ years of practice shopping via catalogs.  This is her domain.
• Jennifer = Inspiration, but she's going to combine inspiration with the internet in order to get exactly what she wants at a price she's willing to pay.
• Jasmine = Wait, I own a mailbox?

Facebook:

• Judy = On Facebook to see pictures of her grandchildren.
• Jennifer = Likes brands because she gets special discounts and promotions.
• Jasmine = Views Facebook as a utility, an extension of who she is, but would switch if something better came along.

Mobile Phones:

• Judy = Owns a tracfone, or a Blackberry device if professionally employed.
• Jennifer = Owns an iPhone or Android device, browser-centric.
• Jasmine = Owns an iPhone or Android device, app-centric.

Email Marketing:

• Judy = Prefers to not receive email marketing messages.
• Jennifer = Thrives on email marketing, loves discounts/promotions, an avid subscriber.
• Jasmine = Finds email marketing to be "old school".

Affiliate Marketing:

• Judy = Has no idea what they are.
• Jennifer = Loves getting coupons for free shipping.
• Jasmine = Indifferent.

Free Shipping:

• Judy = Used to paying for shipping, appreciates free shipping but doesn't expect it.
• Jennifer = Won't buy unless she's offered free shipping.
• Jasmine = Post-free-shipping, values a $399 handbag for $99 and demands free shipping.

Loyalty:

• Judy = Loves a subset of brands that she has history with.
• Jennifer = Loyal to Google, Amazon, Apple, Verizon.
• Jasmine = Gamification leads to loyalty.

Now, every character crosses over into other categories in many ways, so these are not iron-clad rules by any stretch of the imagination.  That being said, my goal is to get you to imagine different customers.  A cataloger should not expect core customers to embrace an iPad app.  A cataloger should not expect mobile devices to replace e-commerce, or to even expect e-commerce to replace the catalog among customers like Judy.  A cataloger should not expect to generate five million dollars of net sales on Twitter when Judy isn't ever going to get her own Twitter account.

Too often, we fail to account for what I call "audience disconnect".  Data I analyze strongly suggests that different audiences use channels differently.  We have a responsibility to link audiences to the channels we manage.

Retail Alignment

For those who have a retail channel, you don't have much data to tell you if Judy, Jennifer, or Jasmine are shopping retail stores.


You do, however, have data that tells you which direct-channel customers are shopping your stores.


So, segment your direct-channel customer base ... I like to look at 12-month buyers, but include all purchase history, weighted by recency of course.  Once I have everybody coded (Judy, Jennifer, Jasmine), I split this audience by direct-channel only and retail+direct-channel.


Here's an example:


Direct-Only Channel Buyers

• Judy = 28%.
• Jennifer = 22%.
• Jasmine = 50%.

Direct Channel Buyers with 1+ Retail Purchase, Last 12 Months

• Judy = 24%.
• Jennifer = 24%.
• Jasmine = 52%.

This is a very common outcome when a retail brand elects to "integrate" the direct channel with the rest of the business.  It's common to have more "Judy" style customers in the direct-only side of the business, these are often rural shoppers without access to retail.

When channels are not in alignment, you'll see differences that are more substantial:

Direct-Only Channel Buyers

• Judy = 44%.
• Jennifer = 31%.
• Jasmine = 25%.

Direct Channel Buyers with 1+ Retail Purchase, Last 12 Months

• Judy = 25%.
• Jennifer = 35%.
• Jasmine = 40%.

In this situation, Management can elect to better "integrate" channels.  Or, Management can realize that different customers are shopping for different reasons, and capitalize on this opportunity.

If you are trying hard to align channels, then your efforts will bear fruit when the composition of Judy, Jennifer and Jasmine are similar for direct-only and direct+retail customers.

Observations About Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine

Ok, you've been hearing about Judy, Jennifer and Jasmine for close to a month.  You're going to hear about them more in the future.  My web analytics data on each persona reveals your perceptions about each individual.


In order, you prefer Jasmine first, then Judy, and Jennifer last.  If I put Jennifer in the subject line, you tune out.  This is so reflective of what we read in the trade journals and on Twitter, isn't it?  We're either told that we have to be "multichannel" ... which is ultimately a way of saying "we need to communicate with Judy", or we have mobile/social/local shoved down our throats like a garden hose hemorrhaging water.


The folks who have a passion for Jennifer have a passion for tactics, and for good reason.  Marketers speaking to Jennifer use tools like Google Analytics ... and as we all know, this tool doesn't allow us to do true customer-level research, so we never know the customer, we only know sporadic, channel-based facts about Jennifer.  Facts like the search terms she uses, the affiliates she snaps up a coupon code from, facts like her love for email marketing that results in 1 in 400 people who receive an email campaign actually buying something that generates profit.  When it comes to Jennifer, we only know tactics, we don't know the lady.  It's the great weakness of the "Jennifer Generation" of marketers/analysts.


Many of you love Judy.  I think this is because many of you can relate to her.  This is also a weakness ... many of you help run companies that cater to Judy, you are in her cohort, so you understand what motivates her.  This deep, thorough understanding limits knowledge of Jennifer, and as a result, has some catalog brands on the verge of falling off of a cliff.  Go perform a demographic analysis of your customer base.  Is your average customer 59 years old, or 64 years old?  If your customer is that old, ask yourself what you're going to do in five years when this customer is now 64-69 years old, or in ten years when your customer is 69-74 years old?


I realize that you're hoping that you'll be retired by the time your customer falls off the commerce cliff into retirement, but somebody is going to have to deal with this.  Don't put this problem off for five years, why not start trying to relate to Jennifer today?  I know, you don't have a passion for Jennifer, for this iPad-toting 43 year old professional who desperately wants to purchase with 20% off and free shipping.  You don't have a choice, folks.  Get to know Jennifer, start relating to her before it is too late.  For many catalogers, we're about to cross over into the realm where it is too late.


Your love of Jasmine is more of a curiosity than anything else.  You click on all of the links, checking out the businesses I mention ... whereas you don't click on any of Jennifer's links.  Here's where things get interesting ... the feedback stops after the links are clicked.  In other words, you want to know what Jasmine is doing, you don't necessarily want to take advantage of what Jasmine is doing.  You want to know that she likes buying a handbag for $99 on MyHabit instead of paying $399 at Nordstrom ... but you don't care about creating a business model to compete with MyHabit.  This is important, folks.  I get feedback like "but how do I get Jasmine to buy from my catalog?" or "nobody buys from social commerce" or "we can't sell something below cost" or "this audience isn't big enough to matter."  We won't get Jasmine to buy from a catalog.  And yes, almost nobody buys from social commerce today, and social commerce as defined today won't be what it will be in five years so why invest today, and I realize you can't sell below cost but maybe other companies have figured out different business models that allow them to cobble together a profit (or not), and yes, the audience isn't big enough to matter today, but it will be big enough to matter in five or ten years ... at the same time when the catalog generation retires.


So all of this is interesting, folks.  Your clicks, what you choose to look at, what you decide to focus on, dictate what you get from this series.  Your clicks suggest that you like Judy, you enjoy reading about Jasmine the most, and suggest that many of you really don't understand or have a passion for Jennifer, fueled by a focus on the tools that you use to analyze Jennifer (i.e. Google Analytics).


We end this post with an opportunity for you to share your thoughts ... what do you think of Judy, Jennifer, or Jasmine?  What resonates with you, what doesn't make sense whatsoever?  Who do you like, who don't you like?  What am I right about, what am I off base about?

Calculating Jennifer

This Jennifer character, she's an interesting one.  Let's look at a few example of what Jennifer looks like.


Remember, I assigned the following weights by channel (your mileage may vary):

• Mail Orders = Weight of 0.00.
• Telephone Orders = Weight of 0.15.
• Online Orders Matched Back to a Catalog = Weight of 0.30.
• Search Orders Matched Back to a Catalog = Weight of 0.40.
• Email Orders Matched Back to a Catalog = Weight of 0.50.
• Pure Search Orders = Weight of 0.60.
• Pure Email Orders = Weight of 0.70.
• Online Advertising Orders, No Offline Interaction = Weight of 0.75.
• Pure Online Orders = Weight of 0.80.
• Mobile, Social, Flash Sales Orders = Weight of 1.00.

And remember, we weight historical transactions by recency ...1.00 for 0-12 month orders, 0.50 for 13-24 month orders, 0.25 for 25-36 month orders, 0.15 for 37-48 month orders, 0.10 for 49-60 month orders, and 0.05 for 61+ month orders.

So here's an example.  A customer spends $100 60 months ago via telephone, and then spends $100 today via a pure email order.

• Net Weighted Outcome = ($100 * 0.10 * 0.15 + $100 * 1.00 * 0.70) / ($100 * 0.10 + $100 *  1.00) = 0.65.

Remember, we categorize a customer based on the net weighted outcome:

• Judy = 0.000 to 0.333.
• Jennifer = 0.334 to 0.667.
• Jasmine = 0.668 to 1.000.

In this case, the customer is "Jennifer".  Her telephone purchase five years ago holds her back from being a "Jasmine", just barely.  As that transaction ages, Jennifer will become Jasmine.  Or, if she buys via email again, she'll become a Jasmine.

Here's another example:  The customer purchased online after receiving a catalog 13-24 months ago, and the customer purchased off of her iPhone yesterday.  The catalog-based transaction was $200, the iPhone purchase was $50.

• Net Weighted Outcome = (200 * 0.50 * 0.30 + 50 * 1.00 * 1.00) / (200 * 0.50 + 50 * 1.00) = 0.533.

This customer is "Jennifer" because her catalog-based transaction was four times as big as the iPhone transaction.  Again, as that catalog-based transaction ages, Jennifer is more likely to become Jasmine, especially if she purchases this way in the future.


Better yet, link your web analytics data to purchase data across channels ... account for Jennifer-like referring URLs in your weighting scheme.

I know, I know, you're going to have issues with this.  Well, you are welcome to do your own research, and come up with your own weighting scheme, I'd welcome it.  Heck, if you do it, I'll consider publishing it for all to see!

Tomorrow, we "calculate Jasmine".

How Do I Decide Who Is Judy, Jennifer, And Jasmine?

There are two key issues to consider, when deciding how to segment Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine.


Issue #1 = Weighting Dollars:  A telephone order in 2002 is virtually meaningless.  An online order in 2008 has some meaning.  A mobile order in 2012 means a lot.  I like to use the following weighting of historical orders/dollars (these weights are company-dependent ... more Judy-type customers usually causes the weights to be greater ... more Jasmine-type customers usually yields smaller weights).

• Orders 0-12 Months Ago = Weight of 1.00.
• Orders 13-24 Months Ago = Weight of 0.50.
• Orders 25-36 Months Ago = Weight of 0.25.
• Orders 37-48 Months Ago = Weight of 0.15.
• Orders 49-60 Months Ago = Weight of 0.10.
• Orders 61+ Months Ago = Weight of 0.05.

Issue #2 = Weighting Channels:  This one, of course, is important.  Each advertising channel gets a weight.  Now, we can debate the weights until the cows come home, and there isn't a right or wrong answer here, so pick up a broom and do some work.  Here's a starting point for some of you ... my weights are client specific, of course.

• Mail Orders = Weight of 0.00.
• Telephone Orders = Weight of 0.15.
• Online Orders Matched Back to a Catalog = Weight of 0.30.
• Search Orders Matched Back to a Catalog = Weight of 0.40.
• Email Orders Matched Back to a Catalog = Weight of 0.50.
• Pure Search Orders = Weight of 0.60.
• Pure Email Orders = Weight of 0.70.
• Online Advertising Orders, No Offline Interaction = Weight of 0.75.
• Pure Online Orders = Weight of 0.80.
• Mobile, Social, Flash Sales Orders = Weight of 1.00.
• Tablet Orders:  Right now, I don't evaluate these different than online orders, we need proof that these orders lead to different subsequent behavior, different than classic e-commerce.

Tomorrow, I'll show you a series of examples of how to calculate Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine.

Why Won't Jennifer Budge?

Many of you tell me that "social media doesn't work".

Or you tell me that you have an app that generates $225 sales a week, saying the strategy "doesn't scale".

The real issue, of course, isn't social media or apps or whatever the fancy, shiny new tool is.

The real issue is "whether Jennifer will budge or not"?

Remember, I like to think of our ecosystem as a mix of three customers.

• Judy, the 50-64 rural catalog shopping veteran.
• Jennifer, the 35-49 year old online maven who hunts for the best deals.
• Jasmine, the 18-34 year old social shopper who knows that information will "find her".

So, if you want fancy new channels to work, you really have two choices.

1. Recruit Jasmine, in large numbers.
2. Convince Jennifer to become Jasmine.

You're not going to move Judy into Jasmine territory ... at least not fast enough to matter.

Too often, we try to convince Jennifer to become Jasmine.

Too often, Jennifer doesn't want to become Jasmine, she wants to be Jennifer!

Once you code Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine in the database, measure (or, as they say on Twitter, #measure) the percentage of each audience that switches in the next twelve months.

Here's an example:

Look at Jennifer.  Jennifer doesn't want to become Jasmine, heck, she'd rather become Judy!

Look at Jasmine.  Jasmine doesn't even want to be Jasmine, she's more likely to become Jennifer next year.

Customers are willing to try new channels, but sometimes they have a gravity for "moving backwards" to existing channels.  This was very common in the 1995 - 2003 timeframe, when customers tried the online channel thanks to a whopping 30% off plus free shipping incentive, then back-tracked to old-school shopping for a period of time.

I see this trend, over and over and over again.  When you see this trend, it means you have a customer base that does not want to change, they don't want your brand to innovate.  Your customers want things as they always have been.

There are a lot of smart people out there who tell you that you must move into new channels ... or risk becoming obsolete.  It's good advice, until you actually measure customer behavior.  In this example, we demonstrated that customers do not want to change.  When your customer doesn't want to change, you have a whole different set of strategic options to consider.


You'll know what your strategic options are when you code Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine in your customer data warehouse and web analytics solution.  Get busy doing this!!

Sending Catalogs to Jennifer

We learned that sending catalogs to Judy is a good idea, and for good reason!  Judy is a thirty-five year catalog purchasing veteran.


Judy is always going to buy from catalogs, as long as she has the money to do so.  This is a BIG issue, by the way.  As best I can tell, I'm the only person in catalog marketing willing to talk about the fact that the core catalog customer (Judy) is now 55+, and in many cases has begun to enter retirement.  For now, we can count on Judy to pay the bills.


We can count on Jennifer (the Transitional customer) to pay the bills in the future.  But she won't pay them the way we want for her to pay them.


Jennifer shops for the best deal she can find.  She takes initiative, "searching" for the businesses and products that best align with her needs.  Catalogs may be a source of inspiration, but they aren't a direct source of profit.


Here's what a sample catalog segment profit and loss statement looks like for a segment comprised of a lot of people like "Jennifer":

This profit and loss statement looks different than what Judy produces.  Notice that Jennifer is unlikely to shop via phone/mail.  She spends her money online.  Her value, as a customer, is equal to Judy.  But, and this is a big BUT ... Jennifer buys regardless whether you mail her a catalog or not.  Look at the 3-week online column, then look at the catalog caused online column.  Of the $4.25 she spent online, only $0.98 was "caused" by catalog mailings.  Your database provider sometimes incorrectly allocates the $4.25 she spent online entirely to the catalog.


When you execute mail/holdout tests, you find that Jennifer is brand loyal, not catalog loyal.


And this is important, because it means that, on an annual basis, you only have to send Jennifer 3-6 catalogs a year, not the 22 catalogs a year you are currently sending her.  Pocket the ad cost, pocket the profit, or re-invest it in customer acquisition if you like, but don't waste it on Jennifer!!


Want your own custom Judy / Jennifer / Jasmine segmentation plan and optimal contact strategy?  Email me by clicking here!

Vintage Judy: Terry's Village

If you want to experience a vintage "Judy" shopping experience, go take a peek at Terry's Village (here is Quantcast data suggesting that Terry's Village is tailor-made for Judy).

1. Catalog Quick Order is featured at the top of the page.
2. A literal "dot whack" on the home page ... over 75 items under $20 ... Judy loves these sort of reminders that help her "focus", if you will.
3. A sale tab ... Jasmine needs everyday low prices, Jennifer is going to hunt for the lowest price coupled with free shipping ... Judy just wants to be told where to go.
4. Request a free catalog at the bottom of the page ... even though the entire merchandise assortment is on the website and Judy is currently visiting the website, Judy wants to know how to get a catalog with a partial merchandise assortment sent to her on a periodic basis.
5. Security:  Judy still isn't confident in this whole e-commerce thing, so Terry's Village helps her feel comfortable ... with "Safe and Secure Shopping", an Authentic and Secure site icon, McAfee Secure Tested in the past few days, 110% lowest price guarantee, 100% customer satisfaction, and a Better Business Bureau Accredited Business link to seal the deal.
6. No mention of Facebook.
7. No mention of Twitter.
8. No mention of YouTube.
9. No mention of Google Plus.
10. No share buttons.

Now, the social media and mobile elite will jump all over Terry's Village for a fossilized approach to commerce, and they'd be wrong if/when they did that.  This is where Judy shops.  You have to know who the heck Judy is, and you have to know what Judy wants from her shopping experience.


Study Questions:

1. Describe the circumstances under which Jasmine would shop at Terry's Village?  Describe how Jasmine would find Terry's Village, and describe what her purchase transaction might look like, from start to finish?
2. If an industry expert suggested that Terry's Village immediately craft a mobile shopping strategy for the Christmas 2012 shopping season, how would you respond, knowing that Judy is the customer who shops Terry's Village?
3. If Judy is the customer currently shopping from Terry's Village, and she is assumed to be about 59 years old, what does this say about the future of Terry's Village?  In other words, what happens when Judy is 64 years old?  Or 69 years old?
4. Instead of suggesting that "this brand is dead, long-term", pretend you are CEO of Terry's Village.  Describe your transition plan for recruiting customers in the "Jennifer" demographic.

Classic Jennifer: Anna and Kristina's Grocery Bag

Here's where we misunderstand Jennifer.


Check out the tweet from Anna and Kristina last week (Twitter page ... click here for the website).

• Tweet:  "Only a couple days left to get your official A&K Shopping Bag for 25% off! Join our FB or G+ page for disc. code.  Info: bit.ly/xqXtxs"

Now, you can pay $39.99 for this bag, or you can join their Google Plus page and get it for $29.99.


Judy is going to ask what the heck G+ is?  Then she'll frown and continue to thumb through her Terry's Village catalog.


Jasmine probably isn't going to pay $29.99 for a zippy bag anyway, she can get a $39.99 bag on Groupon for $15.00.


But Jennifer, she's going to head out to Google to see what else she can get for $29.99.  She'll search, she'll check out brands, she'll check out affiliates for coupon codes.  After all of that, she'll join the Anna & Kristina G+ page and get the bag for $29.99.


What has been accomplished?


A bag was sold at a discount.


Google earned a pair of eyeballs, allowing them to further track Jennifer's behavior.


A bunch of web analytics providers will take notice that Jennifer didn't convert, and folks will criticize you for being a dumb marketer.


Attribution wonks have a field day parsing her G+ and Google Searches and email click-throughs and affiliates visited and all that stuff.


But Jennifer "bagged" her prey.  She couldn't care less about being multi-channel.  Channels are a means to an end.  Liking Anna and Kristina on Facebook or G+ is irrelevant, it was the way that Jennifer got discounted merchandise.


Study Questions:  

1. Anna & Kristina are giving up $10 of profit to get you, the loyal customer, to like them on Facebook or G+.  How would you recoup this $10 investment per customer in social media channels?  Please provide examples with reasonable, actionable data.
2. Is Jennifer buying because of marketing channels, or because of discount/promotional strategy?  How would you separate the impact of marketing channels from the discount/promotional strategy employed here?
3. What is the likelihood of this strategy working with Judy?
4. What is the likelihood of this strategy working with Jennifer?
5. What is the likelihood of this strategy working with Jasmine?

Code Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine in your database!  Email me if you want me to do it for you.

Most Popular Series Of The Past Year: Judy, Jennifer, Jasmine

You like Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine!

• Here's Judy.
• Here's Jennifer.
• Here's Jasmine.

Readership is up 40% this week, and clicks through links in the articles are at an all-time high.


We get a lot of conflicting information, don't we?  We're told that if we aren't fully fluent in mobile marketing, we'll become irrelevant.  Well, if our customer is Judy, mobile marketing is largely irrelevant!!


Email marketers tell us to focus on relevant content.  Well, for Jasmine, that might be everyday low prices.  For Jennifer, that might be 20% off plus free shipping, so long as the competition doesn't offer a better deal.  Judy just wants the catalog in the mail box.


Social media experts demand that you have a conversation.  Judy doesn't want a conversation, she wants to be on Facebook to see her grandchild!


In other words, it is important to know who your customer is!  Channels are irrelevant, to be honest, they are the means by which different customers with different interests express themselves.


Given the popularity of the series, you're going to continue to hear about Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine.  When you are ready to have me analyze your customer base, contact me!


Before I leave you, why not take a brief quiz?  Match the persona (Judy, Jennifer, Jasmine) to each brand below.  Once you ace this quiz, think about each business from a marketing standpoint.  How does social, mobile, classic e-commerce, and offline marketing impact Judy, Jennifer, and Jasmine at each company?  What would your strategy be for each tactic?

1. Patagonia.com
2. MilesKimball.com
3. Bluefly.com

Ladies and Gentlemen, Meet Jennifer

Yesterday, you were introduced to Judy, the classic Traditional customer.


Today, I introduce you to Jennifer, what I previously called the Transitional customer.


Think of Jennifer as a professional or service-oriented 43 year old customer (though she could be anywhere between 35 and 49 years old), a woman who spent her formative shopping years on the internet.


Here's a few things you need to know about Jennifer.

• Jennifer and the internet are "one".  If Google truly went down in protest of SOPA or PIPA, Jennifer would quietly implode.
• Jennifer is willing to pay full price for merchandise she loves from brands she trusts, but she's never going to pay for shipping or handling.  Jennifer will use any affiliate possible to get free shipping, she'll visit coupon sites, she'll like you on Facebook for discounts, she'll subscribe to and click through your email campaigns just to get the discount.  Channel marketers will say that Facebook or email "work", but to Jennifer, it's a means to an end ... a way to make sure she gets free shipping and hopefully a discount, too.  Jennifer is "post-channel", not "multi-channel".  Jennifer will scorch the internet to get a deal.  Do not get in her way!
• In fact, Jennifer loves sites like Coupon Cabin, she enjoys Kate Gosselin's blog.
• Jennifer carefully reads reviews from other purchasers.  Jennifer does not want to be burned when she spends $399 on a handbag.  That handbag better come with a 4.8 out of 5.0 stars and have at least a dozen positive reviews.
• Jennifer likes events like Cyber Monday, where she gets to combine discounts with promotions and fun.  She doesn't have to go to the mall on Black Friday and yet she gets great deals.  She feels like a "slueth", she literally "hunts" for merchandise at the best price.
• Jennifer spent her formative shopping years on the internet.  She met her husband on AOL.  She had an "Excite Homepage" before people knew what Excite even was.  She discovered Google in 2000.  If Jennifer were in college today, she'd argue that you don't need to study for a test, you need to know how to leverage Google and Wikipedia to get the answers you need.
• Because Jennifer was weaned on AOL, she has always been first to be "social".  She used email, she joined MySpace, then Facebook, and then Twitter, and is one of the biggest fans of Pinterest you'll find.
• Jennifer is the customer that email marketers are measuring.  All email marketers should code Jennifer in the database and actively measure her behavior.
• Jennifer browses catalogs, and even buys online after reviewing a catalog.  However, half of the demand that is attributed in matchbacks to catalog marketing would happen anyway.  You can mail Jennifer far fewer catalogs and get almost all of her demand.  Catalogers do not want to hear this.
• Attribution wonks struggle with Jennifer, because she "does everything".  She receives catalogs, she browses catalogs, she uses Google to comparison shop, she clicks through an email campaign, she visits a coupon site for a discount code, she visits via an iPad after reviewing your catalog in an app, she likes you on Facebook, and she buys on your website.  Jennifer "hunts" for her merchandise.  Hunters cover a lot of ground!  Take any channel except Google away from Jennifer, and she'll hunt for a new way to get to the same end result.  Just make sure she can get to her discount code in some way, and she'll buy from you regardless of email or catalog strategy.
• Jennifer is the iPad user you're currently tracking.  She will dictate what the iPad app experience will look like in 2015.
• Jennifer found Zappos before anybody else ... she liked free shipping both ways, and she loved the fact that her shoes arrived in a day or two.  "Why can't everybody do that?" is something she said often in the early days of Zappos.
• Jennifer has formed a "shopping habit" on Zappos, paying for Amazon Prime, buying consumables and having them shipped to her home.  She has no loyalty to the merchants she buys from on Amazon, all of her loyalty is with Amazon and only Amazon.
• If Judy buys a CD at Target, Jennifer loads up her iPad with music ... "I'm not going to sit here and listen to songs and commercials that I don't like, life is too short for that."

We can easily spot Jennifer in our database.  She doesn't purchase via mail or phone.  She often combines channels (receives email, visits via search twice, buys via a free shipping code from an affiliate) to place online orders.  She is more likely than average to take advantage of discounts and promotions.  She might be first to jump on new products or fashion products.  She's probably not one to be hooked on "winning products", as she has a sense of style and fashion that goes beyond what everybody else is doing.  She's an email subscriber using Gmail.  She purchases on Cyber Monday.  She visits the site a lot and doesn't purchase (online wonks think they have to fix this problem ... they don't ... that's just the way Jennifer behaves, just get a discount code in her hand and you'll be fine).

It's easy to find Jennifer in a database.  Find her.  Segment her!  Then start speaking her language, a language that probably doesn't include 22 catalog mailings per year.  In my consulting projects, I am routinely able to cut catalogs by 30% - 60% to this customer without a significant drop in demand.


Go set this attribute up in the database ... NOW!!

Tomorrow, we meet our Transformational customer, named Jasmine.