The MineThatData Forecasting Challenge: Solution #2

The second solution comes to us from the Sisifo Page Team. Click here to read their report:  http://sisifospage.tech/2017-10-30-forecasting-bsts.html.

Here is the three month result (rolling 12 month demand):
  • Month 80 = $81.8 million.
  • Month 81 = $81.3 million.
  • Month 82 = $80.5 million.
Here is their three month forecast:
  • Month 80 = $81.5 million.
  • Month 81 = $81.2 million.
  • Month 82 = $81.0 million.
Here is their "squared error":
  • 0.4 Trillion.  This solution takes the lead!
Solution #3 is tomorrow - we'll see how this solution compares!




P.S.: There was a glitch yesterday, which has been corrected. The Staykova / Bass solution (click here) is as follows:


Here is the three month result (rolling 12 month demand):
  • Month 80 = $81.9 million.
  • Month 81 = $81.3 million.
  • Month 82 = $80.5 million.
Here is their three month forecast:
  • Month 80 = $81.7 million.
  • Month 81 = $81.5 million.
  • Month 82 = $81.3 million.
Here is their "squared error":
  • 0.7 Trillion.