But How Do You Know What The Organic Percentage Will Be?

By analyzing more mail/holdout tests than I care to mention, I have a really good idea how catalog marketing drives demand to (or cannibalizes) other channels.

You might observe, for instance, that 40% of all search purchases were caused by catalog marketing (not matched back, mind you, but caused as measured in a mail/holdout test).

And you might observe that 90% of telephone orders were caused by catalog marketing.

Well, then you have something, don't you?


You can take a segment of customers at the start of 2010, and you can measure the percentage of demand spent during 2010 by channel.  Take 40% of search, 90% of telephone orders, get the picture?  That's your organic demand.  As a percentage of total, you have your organic percentage!

Now, I use more sophisticated methods than that ... I do this stuff at a customer level, with models that combine prior channel preference with Digital Profiles and the like.  I have time-honored and tested tricks that cause the outcome to be more robust.  

But in general, it's that simple!