December 07, 2010

Hashtag Analytics: Part 9 = Seeing The Future

The beautiful thing about Digital Profiles is that we can see where participants are likely to migrate to, given the Digital Profile they reside in.

Let's take the Digital Profile a participant belonged in last month, and measure the probability of a participant engaging again in the next month.

As we've talked about all throughout this series, engagement rates are not high, and that's not a bad thing ... the #blogchat community does a sensational job of recruiting new participants!

If a participant engages again, we can look at the Digital Profiles that the participant is likely to migrate to.  This table illustrates counts by Digital Profile:

There is a logical path that a participant navigates ... the participant usually migrates to "Joining The Conversation" and then to "Shaping The Conversation".  Sometimes, the user migrates to "Making A Statement" and then to "Shaping The Conversation".

Regardless, participation and migration paths make sense.

If we know what engagement rates are, if we know what migration patterns are, and if we know what new participant counts are, we can create a simulation that allows us to forecast the future trajectory of the #blogchat community.

We'll finish our series tomorrow with a four-month forecast for the #blogchat community.